Hurricane Gonzalo: Six things to know
Digital Reporter
Thursday, October 16, 2014, 10:02 AM -
EXTENDED ACTIVE WEATHER COVERAGE: Tune in to The Weather Network for live updates on Hurricane Gonzalo. Our team of reporters and meteorologists in the field provide you with the most accurate and up-to-date coverage.
Models remain in disagreement about how Hurricane Gonzalo will impact Newfoundland, but confidence is growing that it is likely to hit the province this weekend -- although the centre of the storm may be slightly offshore.
Here are six things to know about the storm.
1. Current Forecast
Forecasters say Hurricane Gonzalo has strengthened overnight and is again a dangerous Category 4 storm as it barrels toward the small British island territory of Bermuda.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Gonzalo reached Category 4 strength early Thursday for the second time in two days while fluctuating in intensity.
RELATED: Hurricane Gonzalo increases in strength, strongest storm in Atlantic basin in three years
It says Gonzalo is howling with maximum sustained winds of 220 kph and is centred about 865 kilometres south-southwest of Bermuda. It's moving toward the north at 15 kph toward Bermuda, where a hurricane warning is in effect as the territory rushes to batten down.
The hurricane centre says the eye of Gonzalo is expected to pass near Bermuda sometime Friday, and a dangerous storm surge is expected along with heavy rainfall.
2. Overview of Gonzalo's impact on Atlantic Canada
According to the Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC), latest guidance is still indicating that Gonzalo will be affecting Newfoundland this weekend, even if the centre of it remains a bit offshore.
EXPERT ANALYSIS: Hurricane Gonzalo and its potential impact on Newfoundland this weekend
"Gonzalo will be undergoing transition to a strong post-tropical storm as it races north-northeastward on Saturday with strongest winds to the right (east) of its track and heaviest rains to the left (west) and near the track itself," says the agency in a weather statement. "It is too early to go into detail about which geographical regions will be affected, but is looking more likely that Southeastern Newfoundland will see rain and possibly some wind impacts from Gonzalo."
Eastern Nova Scotia is not out of the picture - heavy rain from the storm is possible there if the centre tracks through Central Newfoundland or west.
STAY UP-TO-SPEED: The Weather Network heads to Atlantic Canada to track Gonzalo
"The overall track scenario still ranges from just east of Cape Breton to about 200 kilometres southeast of Newfoundland," says the CHC. "This still represents a range of about 500 kilometres, or about a 50-60% chance of the storm centre making landfall in Newfoundland."
Arrival of the strong winds/storm centre ranges from midday Saturday to early Sunday (12 to 18 hours of uncertainty).
3. Wind
The CHC say it is still too early to predict wind speeds specifically, but this storm has the potential to bring very strong winds - particularly if the centre of it tracks over Eastern Newfoundland which would put the high wind just right of the storm track.
BELOW: Strong winds ahead of Gonzalo
The agency says it is also possible for the wind field to expand away from the centre of the storm during transition to post-tropical, thus the highest winds could move far enough away from the storm centre such as to miss the land areas, as was the case with hurricane Maria in 2011.
4. Rainfall
Rainfall from Gonzalo will be dependent on its track, speed and state of post-tropical transition as it tracks through our region, all of which have considerable uncertainty at this stage.
"Complicating matters further is the fact that a cold front is expected to cross Newfoundland then become stationary over the eastern part of the island by Saturday morning," says the CHC. "That could bring with it some heavy rainfall especially if moisture from Gonzalo travels along it."
Forecasters hope to have a better idea of potential rainfall amounts later today or Friday.
5. Storm surge/waves
Certainly storm surge and waves will be of concern in Newfoundland if the centre tracks over land, even if it is offshore a bit.
BELOW: Gonzalo Preview:
Tide timing and wave heights will be highlighted in tomorrow's update, so be sure to check back to our website or watch The Weather Network on TV for the latest.
6. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
This storm could have heavy impacts over parts of the marine district.
Hurricane force winds and significant wave heights in excess of 12 metres are certainly possible over some marine areas, especially those to the right of the storm's track late Saturday or early Sunday.
Further details will be available as the situation evolves.
Be sure to check back often as we will continue to update this developing story on a frequent basis.
BELOW: Tracking Hurricane Gonzalo
STAY UP-TO-SPEED: Tune in to The Weather Network for live updates on Hurricane Gonzalo. Our team of reporters and meteorologists in the field provide you with the most accurate and up-to-date coverage.
