Hurricane Gonzalo closes in on Bermuda

Thursday, October 16, 2014, 2:08 PM - Major hurricane Gonzalo has Bermuda in its sights. It could rival Hurricane Fabian in 2003 as one of the worst storms to hit Bermuda in recent times.

Bermuda just went through tropical storm Fay on Sunday. Fay ‘overachieved’ giving everything it had to Bermuda, resulting in significant damage as winds gusted in excess of hurricane force. Roofs were damaged and power was knocked out to many of Bermuda’s 65,000 residents. People are still cleaning up from Fay while simultaneously boarding up for Gonzalo.

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Gonzalo is a much stronger storm and capable of much greater damage, similar to hurricane Fabian in 2003. Fabian is the benchmark storm for Bermudians – up until 2003, Bermuda had been skirted many times in the previous decades, but had never taken an eye-wall hit (where the strongest winds are located).

Fabian was the most direct hit possible – the eastern eyewall of a northward moving category 3 hurricane. Gonzalo could do the same thing – in fact some of the high-resolution hurricane computer models show the eastern eyewall moving across Bermuda Friday afternoon.

This worst case scenario would result in substantial damage similar to Fabian in 2003. Fabian severely damaged the causeway linking the mainland with St. David’s island where the international airport is located, damaged roofs across the islands, destroyed vegetation and resulted in 4 fatalities.

The best case scenario for Bermuda at this point would be for a track far enough west that the islands would avoid the strongest winds associated with the eyewall. A less likely scenario would be a track east of Bermuda, again sparing the island the strongest winds.

It is conceivable that a track far enough west would mean Gonzalo is no worse than Fay just days ago. Let’s hope for this result. However, the risk that Bermudians must prepare for is a direct hit from a major hurricane. Thursday is the last day for preparations – how Gonzalo will be remembered in history will be determined on Friday.