NOAA ranks September as hottest on record, putting 2014 on-track to become the warmest year on record
Meteorologist/Science Writer
Tuesday, October 21, 2014, 12:48 PM - "Climate change has not stopped," says University of Illinois climate scientist Donald Wuebbles, as NOAA adds their voice to NASA's in naming September 2014 the hottest month of September so far on record, and it looks more and more like 2014 will displace all others as the hottest year on record overall.
As news broke of NASA naming September 2014 as the hottest September on record, scientists at NOAA - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - were completing their own assessment of the month. While NASA and NOAA data sets differ ever-so-slightly, which can lead to a different list of hottest months and years, when it came to the month of September, they were in total agreement.
Not only that, but with May, June and August already taking the top spots of their respective 'hottest months' lists, NOAA pointed out some rather disturbing trends that we've been setting so far this year:
"The first nine months of 2014 (January–September) tied with 1998 as the warmest such period on record, with a combined global land and ocean average surface temperature 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.5°F)."
1998 isn't the hottest year on record, but the third hottest, with 2005 ranked 2nd overall and 2010 currently occupying the top spot. However, the next sentence in the report goes on to say:
"If 2014 maintains this temperature departure from average for the remainder of the year, it will be the warmest calendar year on record."
There's still over two months left in the year, which apparently was enough for 1998 to be displaced from the top-spot, so what's the basis for that forecast? Well, it's not just the past nine months that's been setting this trend. As NOAA's assessment points out:
"The past 12 months — October 2013–September 2014 — was the warmest 12-month period among all months since records began in 1880, at 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average. This breaks the previous record of +0.68°C (+1.22°F) set for the periods September 1998–August 1998, August 2009–July 2010; and September 2013–August 2014."
RELATED: '97 Hours of Consensus' seeks to close the gap on public perception about climate change
Climate scientist Jessica Blunden, who works at NOAA's National Climate Data Center, told the Associated Press that it's "pretty likely" that 2014 will become the latest 'hottest year on record' based on what they're seeing.
Trends aside, one of the main reasons for this is the the developing El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean. While it's suffered some stalls since the beginning of the summer, it is showing no sign of abating. The latest forecast shows that it will develop over the next month or two, and will continue into 2015. Since El Niño is known to drive up global temperatures (it's one of the reasons that 1998 - the year of the 'super' El Niño - continues to rank among the hottest years on record), even a weak or moderate El Niño could easily continue the trend and drive 2014 to the top of the list.
RELATED: El Niño and its impact on Canada for Winter 2014/15
As this warming trend continues, with the most recent years stacking up into the top ten hottest on record, it's a direct contradiction to the repeated claim by 'skeptics' that we're in a 'global warming pause' with no warming seen in 18 years. No matter how carefully the end-points for a graph trend line are chosen, it will still not cover up the fact that the globe continues to warm. In fact, as Blunden told AP, NOAA records (which cover far more than just surface temperature data) show no pause in the warming, as September marked the fifth month in a row this year where ocean temperatures set new records.
In a statement to the Associated Press, University of Illinois climate scientist Donald Wuebbles - one of the 97 climate scientists that recently participated in the '97 Hours of Consensus' event on SkepticalScience.com - said: "This is one of many indicators that climate change has not stopped and that it continues to be one of the most important issues facing humanity."
