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2018 FALL FORECAST | Temperature and Precipitation Outlook

Fall 2018: Next 3 months of weather, plus winter sneak peek


Dr. Doug Gillham
Meteorologist, PhD

Saturday, September 22, 2018, 9:09 AM - After a hot summer, most Canadians have already experienced an early taste of autumnal weather. Does this mean an early winter is in the cards, or will summer weather make a strong comeback like it did last year?

Visit our Complete Guide to Fall 2018  for an in depth look at the Fall Forecast, tips to plan for it and much more

The Weather Network has released their fall forecast for the end of September as well as for the months of October and November. We have also released our preliminary forecast for winter and a look ahead at the remainder of the hurricane season. Please read on for all the details.

"Autumn is a tumultuous season, famous for wild temperature swings and powerful fall storms," said Chris Scott, Chief Meteorologist at The Weather Network. "Of course, this fall will include both, but overall we expect a less active and less tumultuous pattern than normal. This means we'll experience a more gentle slide rather than a freefall, as we make the inevitable transition from summer to winter.”

Most Canadians can expect a mild fall with near normal or above normal temperatures for nearly all of Canada except for parts of Nunavut, northern Quebec and Labrador. The warmest weather relative to normal is expected from the Maritimes to Southern Ontario and across the far western side of the country including B.C., parts of Alberta and the Yukon. In between the back for swings in temperature that are typical of the season should come close to offsetting each other.

SEE ALSO: Season of METEOR SHOWERS awaits skywatchers in Fall 2018

Most of the country should see fewer rainy days than normal during the fall, but when storms do occur they will often bring generous amounts of precipitation which should bring many areas to near normal totals for the season. 

Here’s a more detailed look at the conditions expected across the country this fall:   

BRITISH COLUMBIA: RAIN AND TEMPERATURE FUTURE WILL DEPEND ON ONE BIG THING



After a rather cool start to the season (so far during September), milder than normal temperatures are expected for the heart of the fall season across British Columbia. 

The dominant storm track for much of autumn will be across northern B.C., bringing above normal precipitation to that region. Southern areas will be drier than normal during late September and October, but a wetter pattern during late fall should bring most of the south coast to near normal for the season. 

THE PRAIRIES: EARLY SNOW A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME?



The Prairies have experienced a rather abrupt transition from mid-summer heat to chilly, late October-like weather, which will continue into the final week of September. However, the region will settle into a more typical fall pattern for the middle and end of the season, with parts of Alberta tipping to the mild side of normal for the remainder of the season. 

That said, it is important to keep in mind that “normal” temperatures drop by more than 2 degrees Celsius per week during the fall across this region. Also, all long-time residents of the Prairie provinces know that significant snow is a normal part of fall. 

Drier than normal conditions are expected to persist across southern Alberta, with near to slightly below normal precipitation anticipated elsewhere.

ONTARIO & QUEBEC: IN FOR A TRADITIONAL FALL? TAKE A LOOK BELOW



September has brought a continuation of mid-summer heat and humidity across the region with just a brief taste of fall weather so far. However, unlike last year’s record heat of late September and early October, more typical fall weather is forecast to prevail this year during the final days of September and into October.  A milder than normal pattern is expected to return for late fall (especially November) with fewer fall storms than normal. 

While we anticipate fewer than normal rainy days, rainfall totals for the season are still expected to be close to normal due to a few systems that tap into tropical moisture. Peak fall colours will be later than normal this year, but the fall foliage should be much more colourful than last year, except for in areas that were highly impacted by mid-summer drought conditions this year.

ATLANTIC CANADA: 'MILDER' SEASON AHEAD FOR THE ATLANTIC? TAKE A LOOK BELOW



Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for the Maritimes this fall, but there will still be periods of normal fall weather. Periods of dry weather are expected, but most of the region can still expect near normal precipitation with the potential for localized areas to tip above normal. This is due to the threat for a few storms to tap into tropical moisture and bring excessive rainfall. 

THE NORTH: ‘MOST DIVERSE’ FOR NORTHERN CANADA’S FALL - DETAILS BELOW



Milder than normal temperatures are expected across Yukon and parts of the Northwest Territories, while colder than normal temperatures are forecast across much of Nunavut. Above normal precipitation is expected for southern Yukon and into adjacent areas of the Northwest Territories, with near normal precipitation elsewhere.

HURRICANE SEASON UPDATE

After a relatively quiet start to the hurricane season, the first two weeks of September have brought a burst of tropical activity with 5 named storms. A lull in the season is expected during the second half of September but then as we head into early October we have the potential for another active period in the tropics before the season finally shuts down.

One of our greatest concerns continues to be the unusually warm water off the east coast of the United States and Canada. This contributes to more favorable conditions for the systems to develop near the coast (where they pose a greater threat for coming ashore) and this also allows approaching storms to maintain a higher level of intensity as they approach the coast. 

PRELIMINARY LOOK AHEAD TO WINTER

With rumors of a developing El Niño, many are asking if the mild fall pattern will continue through the winter.  For those in Western Canada, we do expect a milder than normal winter, but from the central Prairies to Atlantic Canada a more traditional Canadian winter is expected with near normal temperatures. Across this region, we expect the upcoming winter to bear some resemblance to last winter with periods of harsh winter weather that should be offset at times by significant periods of milder weather 

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