A look ahead: Weather risks disrupting Easter Weekend
Meteorologist
Tuesday, March 31, 2015, 2:53 PM - The Forecast Centre is watching a weather system with the potential to disrupt Easter Weekend from Southern Ontario, across Quebec and into Atlantic Canada.
We’re examining a few different scenarios, but here’s what we know and how it risks affecting your plans for the holiday weekend.
It starts Good Friday with widespread unsettled weather across the East, and a looming cold front for Southern Ontario. Depending on the exact timing, some areas of Ontario (particularly the Greater Toronto Area and south toward London and Windsor) will likely see a few warm hours during in the day. But once the front passes, temperatures should fall steadily through Friday evening and into Saturday, with brisk northwesterly winds.
As cold air surges southward, we’ll watch a disturbance tracking along the front that will bring active weather later Friday and into Saturday.
Uncertainty remains about exactly where this next system will track. The following images illustrate the potential scenarios for Saturday’s weather in Ontario and Quebec.
Scenario #1 for Ontario and Quebec on Saturday
A more northward track for the disturbance would push more moisture back up into the cold air, leading to widespread light snow (shown in shades of blue) across Southern Ontario and Quebec.
Scenario #2 for Ontario and Quebec on Saturday
If the disturbance remains farther to the south, as this next model scenario shows, precipitation north of the U.S. border would be much more limited.
Sure thing for Saturday
Regardless of exactly where the precipitation falls, Saturday will be markedly colder across much of the East, with most areas at least 3oC – 5oC below seasonal (shown in green below), and some areas approaching 10 degrees below seasonal (shown in purple below).
Ahead of the front, Newfoundland may hang onto some warmth for Saturday, but that will be short lived.
What about the West?
The weather in the West will be less active for Easter Weekend, but many areas will see a return to below-seasonal temperatures, which will mark a distinct change from the record warmth of recent days. The absence of mild temperatures from coast to coast is quite noticeable for the period.
Saturday in Atlantic Canada
As the day progresses on Saturday, the developing disturbance will deepen and track to the east, where it will begin to effect Atlantic Canada. Confidence is increasing that the Maritimes and Newfoundland will be dealing with widespread rain and snow on Saturday.
Once again, the exact track of the low will be critical to who gets snow and who gets rain, but we’ll be able to provide a more definitive forecast as we get nearer the weekend.
Easter Sunday
In the wake of this system, we’ll see continued cold for Easter Sunday across Ontario and Quebec, and we’ll be monitoring for the possibility of a weak weather system bring more widespread light snowfall across the region.
Coastal areas across Atlantic Canada will also be dealing with strong winds, as the low pressure area winds up over Labrador.
Areas in yellow and orange on this image below indicate sustained winds forecast of more than 60 kilometres per hour during the day on Sunday.
Beyond Easter
Once we move past Easter, we should see the cold pattern relax somewhat for early next week.
Then, as we look towards mid-April forecast guidance indicates that we may be finally breaking out into a milder period for the east, in which persistent temperatures above seasonal may finally take hold.
So while spring-like weather may not arrive in the east in time for Easter, for many it won’t be too far around the corner.
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