Weather forecasting in the days of Hurricane Hazel, on the 60-year aniversary of the deadly storm

Wednesday, October 15, 2014, 11:44 AM - It's sometimes hard to believe that Hurricane Hazel hit the Greater Toronto Area, long before it was referred to as that in any official sense.

Sixty years ago on October 15, 1954, the world was different; not the least of which was technologically. Sputnik wouldn’t be launched for another three years and weather radar was in its infancy. Perhaps most striking to weather observers these days is how odd it was that we have no meteorological imagery of Hazel from that time, but those were the conditions we lived in then. Computers were used operationally to provide rudimentary numerical weather predictions, but only in Switzerland (for the very first time the year of Hazel and not until the following year in the U.S. before Canada welcomed it some years later).

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Despite these obstacles, what was forecasting actually like in those days and how well did the prediction for Hazel do? Furthermore, were people prepared?

Weather Forecasting in the 1950s

That said; it was hardly the dark ages of meteorology. Technological advances, hastened by the military needs of WWII, gave us early weather radar and helped mature a network of weather stations and weather balloons. Modern telecommunication allowed weather offices with small platoons of technicians to plot the observations on paper charts for meteorologists to analyze, interpret and then extrapolate out 2- to 3-day forecasts from. Experience counted for a lot and this manually intensive approach and use of brain power was the “brute” force method we employed to forecast the future in those days.

The approach wasn’t ugly; in fact, it could be quite elegant. A well-crafted surface analysis or forecast chart of an active weather situation was often strikingly attractive in how it reflected the power and beauty of the natural world. And indeed it was to me when I used to pass by the old Dominion Meteorological building at 315 Bloor Street West in Toronto as a youngster. It was one of the things that enticed me into the science of weather. So were the tales of Hurricane Hazel as I grew up in and around the lower reaches of the Humber River.

Though, at the time, computers were not used for crunching algorithms based on the laws of physics which govern motion in the atmosphere; much about such theory was known. Using the upper air charts which plotted data from weather balloon observations the experienced analyst could use these to project the movement of storms out about 48 hours or so with more than some skill. He could also determine whether a storm would strengthen or weaken based on such things as the strength and orientation of the winds aloft such as jet streams. Timing of precipitation also showed skill as well. A greater challenge was forecasting precipitation amounts and coverage (though much better, it still is today). The forecasters working Hazel as it approached actually had a very good handle on the amounts and, to large extent, the degree to which her rains would be record breaking.

But, were such monitoring and forecasting approaches enough for handling Hurricane Hazel though and its impacts on a largely unprepared south central Ontario? In many ways, it was; but not entirely.

Monitoring Hazel

Hazel was seen 10 days before arriving in Canada, and spotted initially by a patrolling U.S. Naval Hurricane Hunter aircraft on October 5, 1954 moving east from near Grenada into the Caribbean Sea. When found it had tropical storm wind speeds but only 12 hours or so later Hazel had strengthened to hurricane status. After raking Grenada, she continued to move westward and strengthened to Category 4 wind speeds after grazing an initial group of Caribbean nations she turned northward through October 9.

In those days the hurricane hunters would have been responsible for tracking and assessing how organized tropical cyclones were. With the information provided, supplemented by any weather station and balloon data that was available, the forecast track of the storm would have been largely based on extrapolating data around 36 to 48 hours into the future and its past movement over the last few days.

After wreaking havoc in Haiti on October 12 with a high death toll and great destruction, and pounding neighbouring countries around that date, Hazel lost some strength as she headed into the Bahamas. Tracking east of most of that nation Hazel regained power over the Gulf Stream and regained catastrophic Category 4 winds late on October 14 as she approached the Carolinas. The stage was set for intense, moisture charged tropical cyclone to slam into the U.S. Eastern Seaboard and race in a highly unusual path across the Appalachian mountains and over Lake Ontario.

Figure 1. This synoptic chart (valid October 15 at 1100 EDT just before landfall of the eye) depicts the locations and times of hurricane Hazel’s center as she accelerates and barrels toward western Lake Ontario. This rapid forward motion seriously cut down on the lead time available for warning people in an era when getting the word out was not as easy as it is today. The cold front across the GTA was already bringing rain; an overture of what was to come with Hazel’s arrival.
Courtesy: National Weather Service

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