NOAA updates Atlantic hurricane forecast, adds more to list
Digital Reporter
Thursday, August 10, 2017, 12:05 PM - In a scheduled update released Wednesday for its 2017 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now predicts a more active season than previously predicted back in May.
In fact, forecasters say this hurricane season could be the most active since 2010.
Forecasters now predict a 60-percent chance of an above-normal season (compared to the May prediction of 45 percent chance), with 14-19 named storms (increased from the May predicted range of 11-17) and 2-5 major hurricanes (increased from the May predicted range of 2-4). A prediction for 5-9 hurricanes remains unchanged from the initial May outlook.
RELATED: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season - Drivers and predictions
Image courtesy of NOAA
“We’re now entering the peak of the season when the bulk of the storms usually form,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “The wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season. This is in part because the chance of an El Nino forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May.”
Another factor that points to an above-average season includes warmer waters across the tropical Atlantic than previously prediction, noted Bell.
Image courtesy of NOAA/NHC. Tropical activity as of Wednesday, Aug 9.
“[Wednesday’s] updated outlook underscores the need for everyone to know their true vulnerabilities to storms and storm surge,” said FEMA Administrator Brock Long. “As we enter the height of hurricane season, it’s important for everyone to know who issues evacuation orders in their community, heed the warnings, update their insurance and have a preparedness plan.”
The average season, which runs from June 1st through November 30th, typically produces 12 named storms, of which six typically become hurricanes.
In just the first nine weeks of this season, the Atlantic basin has seen six named storms (Arlene in April; Bret and Cindy in June; Don and Emily in July; and Franklin in August). Two of these storms, Cindy and Emily, made an impact on parts of the United States. Cindy made landfall on June 22 at the Louisiana-Texas border and caused heavy rain, inland flooding and multiple tornado outbreaks. Emily made landfall on July 31 in Anna Maria Island, Florida.
Franklin strengthened to become the season's first Atlantic hurricane Wednesday afternoon. It is predicted to make landfall in Mexico overnight Wednesday into Thursday.
Meanwhile, forecasters are closely monitoring a new disturbance, Invest 99L, which may impact the U.S. East Coast next week.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
