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Does a colder or warmer Fall influence what sort of Winter lies ahead? It's easy to make that connection. But not so fast, says Weather Network meteorologist, Dr. Doug Gillam.

Mild Fall, Mild Winter?


Kim MacDonald
Reporter

Friday, October 10, 2014, 10:19 AM - Does a colder or warmer Fall influence what sort of Winter lies ahead?

It's easy to make that connection. But not so fast. 

Temperatures can fluctuate significantly in September and October. And there's often a short period where they peak to near summertime levels. So it's not surprising to hear people make assumptions about Winter, based on what Fall or Summer were like. 


SEE ALSO: How will El Nino impact winter weather patterns?


"For all the examples where the late summer seemed to accurately predict the upcoming winter weather, we have examples where the opposite occurred," explained Weather Network Dr. Doug Gillam. "When you look at the major drivers of winter and summer weather patterns, they can change from one season to the other and some of the those major drivers can actually have the opposite impact on the summer as they do in the winter."

Cooler or warmer temperatures in late Summer and early Fall aren't a sign of how Winter will unfold. That typically depends on global weather patterns, including the effects of El Nino and La Nina.


RELATED: El Niño and its impact on Winter 2014/15: "Pattern resembles last winter"


And while what this winter brings remains to be seen, we took to the polls to see which of these 'natural' indicators of hard winter weather you have heard before:



The majority of Canadians voted "none of them", but based on the comments section below the poll, it could be because we neglected to mention some of the following favourite winter weather 'old wives tales'.



"The Farmer's Almanac probably is the best predictor of a long winter or snowfall. Other natural phenomena, most is just folklore with some half truths," wrote Daniel Kuryliak. 

"Old saying from my home in Transylvania is: 'If berries and nuts are plentiful, the winter will be long.' That actually makes sense doesn't it?," said another voter Helga Fisher. 

"I heard a farmer say that the thickness of the onion skins is what he checks to see what kind of winter it will be. Thick = bad winter...Thin = warm winter," shared Shari Martineau. 

"I've seen a few rust coloured caterpillars this week that have a thick black stripe at each end," said Simone Tousignant. "I heard that can be a sign of a cold winter." 

And those are just a few of the interesting responses we received. To read them all, take our poll and share your thoughts in the comments below!

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