So what are the impacts we’re looking at? The good news is that we won’t be experiencing a Category 4 hurricane once Gonzalo reaches Canadian waters. Gonzalo will undergo rapid weakening as it passes north of Bermuda interacting with an environment unfavourable to sustaining a storm of that strength. The cone, the area on the track map from the NHC, indicates an area from just east of Cape Breton east to southeastern Newfoundland. This is about a 500 km range. Typically heaviest rain falls on the left side of the storm and strongest winds are on the east side of the storm. If Gonzalo’s track takes it further west, we would be dealing with a scenario where the Avalon Peninsula would be impacted by strong winds. Should the track take Gonzalo further east, we would be dealing with more of a heavy rain scenario for Newfoundland with the strongest winds remaining offshore.
Gonzalo will be interacting with an incoming low pressure system once it moves into Canadian waters. A cold front will push into Newfoundland for Saturday coinciding with Gonzalo’s arrival. This cold front will become somewhat stationary bringing moderate to heavy rain. If this cold front can draw some moisture in from Gonzalo, we could see some heavy rainfall amounts.
Once Gonzalo moves in, the storm will be moving very quickly with the heavy rain likely moving in on the front end of the storm before tapering off. There is still too much uncertainty at this point in time to nail down rainfall amounts.
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Whether or not Gonzalo makes landfall in Newfoundland or remains out to sea, the winds will be gusty across Newfoundland. Should the centre of the storm move across Newfoundland, we will be dealing with stronger winds. When a storm is still tropical, the strongest winds remain near the centre of the storm, near its core. However, when a storm begins to transition to post-tropical, its wind field expands meaning the core of strongest winds can extend further outward. This will likely be the case with Gonzalo. Though it is still too soon to say what the wind speeds will be, it is likely we will see gusts reaching warning criteria. Should the track take Gonzalo further west, we could see wind gusts 100+ km/h over the Avalon Peninsula.
High surf and storm surge will be a concern for Newfoundland. Again, due to the uncertainty of the exact track, it’s hard to say who will be hardest impacted. It will also depend on the timing of the storm’s impact and whether or not it coincides with high tides in the area.
Confidence is high that Newfoundland will be impacted by Gonzalo. It certainly won’t be a Category 4 storm but impacts will be felt across the province in the form of wind and rain. The exact impacts and intensity will depend on where the centre of the storm tracks relative to Newfoundland. Stay with The Weather Network for updates on the web and on television. We will have our teams in the field this weekend including Nate Coleman, Chris St. Clair, and our storm hunters Mark Robinson and Jaclyn Whittal. Live coverage of the storm will continue throughout the weekend.
