Extended period of early winter weather for southern Ontario
Meteorologist, PhD
Wednesday, November 12, 2014, 8:09 AM - A major pattern change is on the way for southern Ontario as the early October-like temperatures of Tuesday will be replaced by an extended period of below seasonal temperatures that will continue into late November.
The weather pattern across the country for late this week and next week will resemble what we saw for much of last winter. Of course, temperatures will not anywhere near as cold as what we saw during the middle of last winter, but most of southern Canada will be well below their average temperatures for mid-November.
High temperatures on Wednesday across southern Ontario will be a few degrees above freezing, but a brisk west wind gusting over 50 km/h will produce a wind chill below zero. Lake effect snow showers will develop in the traditional snow belts, but only scattered flurries are expected in the GTA.
The lake effect snow bands east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay will intensify on Thursday and have a significant impact on travel in the snow belts. A few snow showers will make it to the southern GTA, especially late in the day with a dusting to a coating possible.
Friday will be chilly but fair across most of southern Ontario, but the threat for lake effect snow will continue southeast of Great Lakes. The wind will turn to the southwest on Saturday, taking any lingering lake effect snow bands off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron well to the north of the GTA. However, snow showers could develop near Lake Ontario to the east of the GTA and close to Lake Erie in southern Niagara.
A disorganized system will track across Southern Ontario during Sunday and bring the potential for a more widespread, but mostly light snow across Southern Ontario, including the GTA. Snow amounts in most areas should be limited to a couple of centimetres or less, but there could be some additional lake enhancement in Niagara and to the east of the GTA with the brisk southwest wind off of the lakes.
Behind this system, even colder weather will flood into the Great Lakes region for next week with high temperatures closer to our average highs for early January. In addition, lake effect snow squalls will develop with the potential for substantial accumulations and dangerous travel in the snow belt regions.
Looking further ahead, we will be keeping our eye on the potential for a significant system late next week for the eastern U.S., but it is too early to tell if this would have an impact on southern Ontario.
