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Canada’s July forecast: Summer sizzle or does the heat fizzle?

Monday, July 4th 2022, 7:52 am - Last summer was a scorcher. Can we expect a repeat as we head into July? Check out our exclusive July outlook to help plan out your month ahead.

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Summer has gotten off to a cooler start across most of Canada, especially compared to last year. Will that trend continue through July? To find out, please read on!

But first, we will take a quick look back at how the beginning of this summer compares to what we saw last year.


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First, here is a look back at June 2021 which included a historic heat wave across western Canada, widespread severe drought, and dangerous wildfires.

The various shades of orange and yellow on the temperature anomaly map below highlight the regions that were warmer than normal. As you can see, much warmer than normal temperatures extended from coast to coast across Canada.

June2021

Now, contrast that to how this summer has started across Canada.

As you can see on the map below, most of Canada has been near normal or on the cool side of normal. Warmer than normal temperatures have been primarily limited to parts of northern Canada and Newfoundland. Parts of southern Ontario have also been warmer than normal, but that is not well indicated by the data on the graphic below.

June2022

While much of Canada saw cooler than normal temperatures for the month of June, there was plenty of hot weather to be found elsewhere across North America. Hotter than normal temperatures were widespread across much of the central U.S.


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As we look ahead to the month of July, we expect that we will see a few changes to the pattern.

First, we expect that the focus of the hot weather over the U.S. will shift west, and the heat will expand north at times.

This means that the Prairies and into most of B.C. will see a more typical summer pattern during July with periods of hot weather. However, cooler weather could linger near the central and northern coast of B.C.

July2022

This pattern may appear to resemble last summer, but the severity of the heat will not be comparable to last year. Also, while July will not be as wet as what we saw during June across western Canada, a stormy pattern at times should prevent widespread and prolonged drought conditions.

The hot pattern over the central U.S. could also spread east into the Great Lakes region and southern Quebec at times. However, we do not expect persistent heat across this region, especially during the first half of the month. Several cool fronts are expected to track across the region during July, bringing periods of pleasant weather with comfortable humidity.

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We expect near normal temperatures across most of Atlantic Canada, but a couple shots of cooler weather are expected. We will also keep a close eye on the tropics as a very active hurricane season is already underway.

Compared to last year, we expect a much more pleasant July across most of Canada. Summer will show up across Canada, but we will avoid the extended periods of extreme heat and severe drought that were such an issue last summer. Conditions will also not be as conducive for wildfires compared to what we have seen during several summers in recent memory.

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Stay tuned to The Weather Network for your latest forecast and what to expect in the weeks ahead.

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