Florida is watching for possible first tropical system of the year
A pre-season tropical system is being picked up on models just offshore of the U.S. coast.
The 2020 hurricane season officially starts on June 1st, but we have already seen hints of activity in the models this past month.
While 97 per cent of tropical systems develop between June 1st and Nov 30th, sometimes you can have early pre-season storms that develop based on weather conditions. Next week, we are again watching for potential development in the Caribbean.
PAST MAY TROPICAL SYSTEMS OF NOTE
There are really no rules when it comes to systems developing outside of the official hurricane season, and the history backs that up: in total, there have been 53 named tropical systems in the month of May in historical records. In 2016, Tropical Storm Bonnie formed May 28 and went on to make a landfall on the South Carolina coast. In 2008, an early storm on May 31, it was Arthur was given the name Arthur, which will be shared by this week's storm if it reaches tropical status.
WATCH BELOW: ANOTHER ARTHUR? WHY SOME HURRICANE NAMES DON'T GET RETIRED
A SYSTEM POSSIBLY BORN IN THE BAHAMAS
We are watching a disturbance (a cluster of showers and thunderstorms) over the Bahamas that could strengthen around May 16th according to both the GFS and the EURO weather models. There are a few favourable characteristics in place such as warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic near the U.S. southeast coast.
Ocean temperatures are in the mid 20s celcius off the U.S. southeast coast, and tropical systems will only sustain themselves with temperatures at or above 26C. The system will most likely stay well offshore of the U.S. coast as the Bermuda high steers it north and east by the middle of next week.
If it does become a named system, as Tropical Storm Arthur, its tenure could be short-lived as it moves north into cooler waters. It could have some impacts on the Bahamas as well as Florida, bringing rip currents, heavy downpours and high surf.
DOES THIS EARLY DEVELOPMENT MEAN THE SEASON WILL BE ACTIVE?
There is no direct correlation to an early outlier storm in the pre-season to the overall hurricane season. That being said, Colorado State University released their early prediction earlier this year and they are calling for an above-average season.
Finally, it is not just the Atlantic basin that is becoming active. The Western Pacific Tropical Basin now has its first named storm of the season as well.
Tropical Storm Vongfong will likely make landfall over the next five days in the northern Philippines.