Winter has a few tricks up its sleeve for Eastern Canada this year
A warm start to the winter season is likely across Eastern Canada
A complex winter season is on the way for folks across the eastern half of Canada as El Niño runs the table through the coming months.
But don’t count out the country’s hallmark snow and cold just yet. Even the warmest winter can have quite a few tricks up its sleeve.
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El Niño rules the roost this winter
One of the most powerful El Niño events on record continues to strengthen as it heads toward a likely peak early this winter. These historically warm Pacific waters have a profound effect on weather patterns from Cambodia to Canada.
Past years dominated by strong El Niño events featured very warm winters as a whole. The winter of 2023-2024 holds the record for Canada’s warmest winter ever observed, after all.
Above-seasonal temperatures are expected throughout almost all of Eastern Canada through the early winter months.
Given current patterns and how previous years have unfolded, there’s high confidence in a very mild and potentially record-breaking December. The greatest opportunity for well-above normal temperatures exists over Ontario and southern Quebec.
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El Niño should start to fade as the winter progresses. If the decline happens quickly, and the atmosphere responds in kind, winter could attempt a comeback heading into January and February.
Canada isn’t Florida, of course, and wintertime temperatures running above seasonal are still plenty cold. Frigid air will still break through the pattern, as well, but these bursts will likely prove brief. These wintry intrusions may become more likely during the second half of the season as El Niño’s influence potentially wanes.
Closely watching the storm track
Active storm tracks also determine what kind of winter we’ll experience.
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This year, storms are favoured to form and track across the southern U.S. before swooping north up the eastern seaboard.
Such a pattern would prove favourable for repeated spells of active weather for Atlantic Canada. This storm track would likely include the entire spectrum of wintry precipitation rather than the region ending up on the colder, snowier side of low-pressure systems.
But this doesn’t mean Ontario and Quebec are spared. We’ll still see the active storm track migrate north and south throughout the season. If storms tracking farther north meet up with cold air locked over the region, portions of the two provinces could see impactful conditions.
As a result, overall snowfall could become more localized this season as areas just cold enough cash in while neighbouring areas that were a tiny bit warmer miss out.
Unseasonable warmth will extend into the lakes themselves, which could fuel bursts of lake-effect snow when spells of Arctic air sweep the region. The keys are in the ignition, but will any bursts of cold air come along to start the engine? That’s the big question for the snowbelts.
Ski areas will certainly prove vulnerable heading into December as they struggle to establish a snow base with temperatures climbing above freezing at times.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom for ski regions. A few weeks with temperatures just cold enough, along with two or three favourable storm tracks, could push these regions to normal snowfall even in the midst of a mild winter.
With files from Tyler Hamilton, a meteorologist with The Weather Network.