Warmer fall in B.C. may turn active with alpine snow chances
Stubborn summer-like warmth will continue into fall for much of B.C., with a catch for coastal areas
Welcome to fall on the West Coast!
Summer-like weather isn’t going to give up without a fight. Folks throughout British Columbia can expect defiant autumn weather over the next couple of months.
An intense El Niño in the Pacific Ocean will heavily influence the season ahead, but not even the strongest El Niño can stop Canada’s inevitable slide into the cooler season.
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Here’s a look ahead at what you can expect from autumn across B.C.
Fall will prove to be a defiant season
The cooler weather that arrived in early September doesn’t necessarily mark the end of warmth across the region.
Temperatures in the B.C. Interior should return to a milder and drier pattern through a big chunk of autumn, with above-seasonal temperatures covering much of the region. The province’s coastal communities will likely see readings average out near-normal through the season.
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El Niño isn’t the only actor on the stage this fall. We’ll also have to watch the potential for typhoons recurving out of the western Pacific, which may throw a wrench into the pattern and jostle B.C.’s conditions at times.
A more active Pacific storm pattern is expected later in the fall, with near-seasonal precipitation expected for coastal areas over the next few months.
We may see enough cold air filter south to boost the odds of substantial early-season snows in the Alpine areas, giving us reason for cautious optimism heading into the ski season.
Frequently asked questions
Q: Does a warmer fall mean we’ll coast through and winter weather won’t arrive until December?
A: Hard no. Snow, hard freezes, and Arctic air are normal parts of the transition through fall. Our forecast is made to identify the dominant pattern, and cold spells are more likely to be interrupted by mild weather rather than becoming the permanent pattern.
Q: Will ski season be delayed?
A: We’re carefully watching central and eastern Canada, where there’s a real risk of delays, while western Canada looks more nuanced and will be elevation-dependent. Previous strong El Niños have even delivered above-average snowfall amounts to B.C.’s mountains.
Q: The fall forecast sounds kind of boring. Are we destined for a storm-free season?
A: No. Even if precipitation finishes below normal, the season can still produce a handful of memorable, major storms.
Q: Could Canada face a historic fall storm?
A: Yes. Fewer storms doesn’t mean weaker storms, and one major event can define how an entire season is remembered.
Q: Does El Niño mean a mild winter?
A: Keep an eye out for our Winter Sneak Peek release in the coming weeks. The winter forecast will depend on how El Niño evolves and several other atmospheric factors.
Q: Will we get an early snowstorm?
A: It depends where you reside. Victoria, B.C.: highly unlikely. Churchill, MB: count on it. All it takes is a sharp pattern disruption that would temporarily overwhelm the dominant pattern.
The most important question isn’t whether winter weather appears, but whether it sticks around.
Winter weather will knock at times. This year, don’t expect it to move in right away.
WATCH | Canada's 2026 Fall Forecast: El Niño could keep the cold at bay
This article was written with the guidance and expert forecasting of Dr. Doug Gillham, a senior meteorologist specializing in long-range forecasting at The Weather Network.