Spring tease before a wintry mess returns to Ontario

Winter's flip-flopping continues across Ontario, with a taste of spring-like temperatures followed by a wintry mix and plunging daytime highs this week

It's been tough to get a real taste of winter so far this month, with above seasonal temperatures dominating across much of Ontario. That trend will continue once again this week, with a surge of the mildest air so far this year possibly challenging some all-time record daytime highs.

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"Monthly high temperature records will be unlikely as temperatures would need to reach the upper teens or even low 20s to crack those records," says Kelly Sonnenburg, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.

But a strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching Colorado low will still give the large bump in temperatures across the south. By mid-week, some places could see double-digit daytime highs approaching the mid-teens.

Baron - ON temps - Feb13

Parts of central and northern Ontario will see a mix of rain and snow with the system, while the south will manage to sneak by with seeing only passing rain showers.

A secondary low late week, however, will track into the region providing more typical wintry weather to areas in the south.

Baron - Texas low outlook - Feb13

"While this Texas low will have some milder air associated with it, the track of the low could bring in a messy mix of rain, ice and snow across central and southern Ontario late Thursday night and into Friday," Sonnenburg says.

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Behind this system, temperatures will temporarily tumble to subfreezing values leading to a chilly start to the Family Day long weekend.

So what is left of winter, if anything?

Despite this week's extreme warmth, it would be naive to think that's it for the snow and cold across southern Ontario. Based on the monthly high temperature records for February, it is very common to see a brief tease of spring-like weather in February, with winter weather typically lingering well into March, and sometimes even April.

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The pattern through the remainder of February highlights an active storm track across the Great Lakes, meaning swings in temperatures will continue, and messy wintry weather is also a guarantee as well.

Baron - Mid Feb temps - Feb13

Be sure to check back later this week for a closer look at what's left of the winter season.