Autumn is a transitional season that typically features memories of the season before and glimpses of the season to come. This year, however, we've seen a warmer-than-normal fall across much of the country, which raises the question: can we expect more of the same through November?
Before we dive into what the next four weeks have in store, let's take a closer look at how the season has played out so far.
The various shades of orange and red on the temperature anomaly map below highlight the areas that have been warmer than normal since the beginning of September, while blue indicates colder-than-normal temperatures. Note the absence of blue on the Canadian side of the border -- this indicates that no region in Canada has been colder than normal for this time period.
However, the final week of October featured a pattern reversal for parts of the country. The temperature anomaly map below shows that since Oct. 20, temperatures have actually flipped to colder-than-normal across Western Canada. This pattern change finally delivered much-needed rain to B.C., and also brought the first significant snowfall of the season to Calgary.
Meanwhile, temperatures have been much warmer than normal from Ontario to Atlantic Canada.
November Temperature Outlook
As we look ahead to the month of November, we expect that the late-October pattern will continue to dominate through early November. This will deliver shots of winter-like weather to Western Canada, and widespread colder-than-normal temperatures are also expected across most of Northern Canada.
Meanwhile, much warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected from Ontario to Atlantic Canada, with temperatures more typical of late September and early October, especially during the first week of November.
As we head into mid-November, the frigid weather across Western Canada will attempt to spread east. This will bring more seasonal temperatures at times to Eastern Canada, but we expect that the focus of the cold weather will remain across Western Canada. Mild temperatures should make another appearance or two across Eastern Canada before winter finally settles in.
However, during the second half of November, we expect a shift in the pattern with the focus of the coldest weather spreading across Central Canada, including much of Ontario and into western Quebec.
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We're uncertain as to exactly how quickly this pattern change will unfold, but once the colder pattern settles in, we expect it will persist through early December. So, be sure to enjoy the mild temperatures during the first half of November!
November Precipitation Outlook
November has a reputation for being a gloomy and stormy month, but for much of Eastern Canada we expect fewer-than-normal storms. While the pattern across this region should become more active during the second half of the month, most of the region should see below-normal precipitation totals for the month of November as a whole.
Meanwhile, above-normal precipitation is expected across most of southern B.C., and southern Alberta. Much of that precipitation will fall as snow for areas away from the B.C. coastline. For the south coast of B.C., November is typically the wettest month of the year, so near-normal or slightly above-normal precipitation totals will be a dramatic turnaround from the extreme drought conditions that were prevalent through mid-October.
Above-normal precipitation is also expected across parts of the eastern Prairies, northwestern Ontario, and northern Quebec. During early and mid-November, this region will be the battleground between the colder weather to the west and the mild weather to the east, resulting in an active storm track across the area.
In summary, November will feature a transition from a mild fall pattern to a colder, winter-like pattern. Does this mean that a colder-than-normal winter is lurking around the corner? You'll have to check back on November 29 when we release our official 2022-23 Winter Forecast to find out!