Atlantic hurricane season outlook released, with a major catch
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season forecast isn’t as cut-and-dry as usual due to competing factors that may influence (or subdue) storm activity
A growing El Niño could have a noticeable impact on this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters with NOAA announced on Thursday.
The growing pattern in the Pacific isn’t the only influencer on the block this season, which also has experts concerned over increased uncertainty in this year’s predictions.
Regardless of seasonal forecasts, coastal residents and visitors should prepare for hurricane season long before any storms have the opportunity to develop.
DON’T MISS: Latest forecast warns a very strong El Niño could emerge soon
NOAA calls for a below-normal season
NOAA’s official outlook calls for a below-normal hurricane season this year, potentially producing 8 to 14 named storms across the Atlantic basin. 3 to 6 of those storms may grow into hurricanes, a couple of which may intensify into major hurricanes.
An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
The agency’s forecast is in line with Colorado State University, which released a similar seasonal outlook back in April.
Remember, it only takes one storm making landfall to make this season a bad one for your community.
Take some time to review your supplies and plans for hurricane season well before any storm’s arrival, keeping in mind that high winds, heavy rain, and tornadoes can stretch as far inland as Ontario and Quebec.
More uncertainty than usual this season
This year’s call for below-normal activity isn’t set in stone. Many factors play into the overall activity of an Atlantic hurricane season, some of which work against each other.
El Niño affects Atlantic hurricanes by increasing the amount of disruptive wind shear that blows east over parts of the basin, working to decrease the number of storms that can develop.
On the other hand, forecasters are also monitoring warmer Atlantic ocean temperatures as well as lower wind shear across the basin as a whole. These factors may work in favour of tropical development.
As a result, the NOAA forecast only assigns a 55 per cent chance of 2026 turning out to be a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season; there’s a 35 per cent chance that it turns out normal, and a 10 per cent chance we wind up with above-normal activity.
RELATED: How do Atlantic hurricanes get their names?
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and runs through November 30, though we occasionally see storms form outside of that six-month window.
Our first named storm this year will be Arthur, followed by Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly. This year’s list was last used during the historic 2020 hurricane season, and it features the name Leah for the first time as a replacement for Laura.
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