Environmental stress impacting 97% of global coffee production, raising prices
Canada loves coffee: According to the Trade Facilitation Office of Canada, we drink more of it than the United States or Britain, on a per capita basis.
One of the world’s most popular beverages is facing pressure due to climate change, according to a new report.
The analysis, published Wednesday by Climate Central, finds that extreme weather in the world’s main coffee-growing regions, also referred to as the “bean belt”, is making the product harder and more expensive to produce.
Globally, people consume about 2.25 billion cups of coffee per day.
“Coffee plants thrive under specific temperature and rainfall ranges,” reads an excerpt from the report.
“Suboptimal conditions can harm the quality and quantity of bean harvests ... [and] climate change is bringing more excessive heat to major coffee-growing regions.”
Climate Central looked at daily temperatures between 2021 and 2025 in 25 bean belt countries to determine how often the daily high exceeded 30°C, the threshold where heat begins harms coffee crops.
“Temperatures beyond 30°C are extremely harmful for growing arabica coffee plants and suboptimal for growing robusta coffee plants,” Climate Central says.
“Beans from these two plant species (arabica and robusta) make up the vast majority of the global coffee supply.”
It found that “coffee-harming heat” occurred in the top five coffee producers (Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia) for more than 144 days each year, on average. The authors estimate that without climate change, these countries would see an average of 57 fewer days with coffee-harming heat.
The top five coffee-producing countries are responsible for about 75 per cent of the global supply, Climate Central says.
In total, daily temperatures were analyzed in 25 coffee-growing countries, responsible for 97 per cent of the world's coffee production.
Every country experienced an increase in coffee-harming heat over the past five years.
Brazil, which produces roughly 40 per cent of the world’s coffee beans, was among the most impacted, experiencing an extra 70 days of harmful heat annually.
There is one caveat: Arabica beans are typically farmed at higher elevations where temperatures tend to be cooler, and some of those crops may not have experienced the same number of heat-damaging days as those closer to sea level.
Other risks to coffee bean crops
Heat isn’t the only stressor impacting coffee beans: Unusual rainfall, either too much or too litte, along with pests and diseases, further impede production and influence coffee prices.
Speaking with the CBC Lily Peck, an evolutionary biologist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said extreme heat forces plants to divert resources from general functions to focus on survival, leaving them more susceptible to disease.
Higher humidity from warm temperatures or excess moisture from above-average rain could promote the growth of plant-damaging fungus, Peck said.
What is the future of coffee production?
The report suggests coffee production may have to migrate if bean belt countries become too warm. Without interventions, the report says that land suitable for coffee growth could be reduced by up to 50 per cent by 2050.
While migration can open up opportunities in other economies, it could also promote deforestation, especially if coffee farmers are forced to seek out higher elevations.
Coffee prices in Canada seeing a sharp rise
Data from StatCan suggests coffee prices have nearly doubled in Canada since 2020.
In 2020, 340 grams of roasted or ground coffee beans sold for about $5.36, rising to a price of $9.30 by October 2025, according to the government agency.
Even if environmental factors subside, Vik Singh, an associate professor in Toronto Metropolitan University’s Global Management Studies department, told CP24 he doesn’t think the high price tag will ever come down, citing consumer demand.
“I don’t think I really see a way out of it. The only thing I can see is coffee prices might not increase as much as (they are) increasing right now,” he told the publication in December.
Where does Canada’s coffee come from?
Canada loves coffee.
According to the Trade Facilitation Office of Canada (TFO Canada), we drink more of it than the United States or Britain, on a per capita basis.
That averages out to about 2.8 cups per day. In 2023, Canadian spent about $35 a month on it.
Most of Canada’s coffee comes from Latin America, with Colombia and Brazil being among our top suppliers.
RELATED: Here’s why you should never pour coffee down a storm drain
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