Friday, May 10th 2019, 8:15 pm - Sunny Saturday, but showers threaten for Mother's Day
While it won't be a washout weekend for Mom, the weather could be a little more co-operative in southern Ontario for those waiting for consistent spring warmth. While the Texas low that brought showers and thunderstorms on Friday has passed, patchy clouds will dog the region through the weekend, with the risk for a return to showers on the horizon for Sunday. We take a look at high water levels in the Great Lakes, who can expect to warm up this weekend, and if you'll be giving mom the gift of good weather (hint: get a back-up present) this weekend, below.
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- High pressure means clearer skies Saturday
- Risk of showers returns for Mother's Day for some
- Increased flooding risk along shores of lakes Erie, Ontario with strong winds and high waters
- Latest watches and warnings HERE
The rain has passed but the chilly air returns to southern Ontario, courtesy of high pressure moving down from the north. That high pressure will bring sunny skies for many on Saturday, but it has also prompted frost advisories for parts of the southwest into Saturday morning.
SUNNY, COOL SATURDAY
Sunshine will make for a welcome change on Saturday, though temperatures will remain about five degrees cooler than seasonal across most of the southern tier of the province, thanks to an east wind off of lakes Ontario and Erie.
Unfortunately, for anyone hoping to celebrate Mom with outside plans on Sunday, showers are back in the forecast for some on Mother's Day.
WATCH BELOW: TRACKING THE RETURN OF RAIN FOR MOM'S BIG DAY
A system skimming southern Ontario to the south will bring the threat for showers back into the region on Mother's Day, though it's expected to remain largely south of the border -- good news for those with outdoor plans.
"Expect light rain totals during the day on Sunday, and there will be rain-free periods," says Weather Network meteorologist Dr. Doug Gillham. Even where the showers hold off until later in the day, clouds will be increasing.
With that said, those strong east winds persist across the lakes on Sunday, and that means much of the GTA, 401 corridor, Niagara and the southwest will remain on the chilly side of seasonal.
It's actually central and eastern Ontario and the Nickel Belt who stand to see the nicest weekend weather, as temperatures rebound comfortably into Sunday.
LAKE ONTARIO, ERIE FLOODING CONCERNS
Water levels in Lake Ontario have topped 75 metres and are currently sitting at 75.55 m -- about 30 cm shy of the severe flooding levels that swamped the Toronto Islands in 2017.
The body responsible for regulating flow from the lake -- the International Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Board -- expects water levels to continue rising until late May or early June, and puts the forecast peak somewhere between 75.65 to 75.95 metres. That would top 2017's record levels by about two centimetres.
"Water levels will continue to rise about a centimetre every single day," warns Weather Network meteorologist Tyler Hamilton.
The shoreline hazard warning issued last week by the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) was renewed on May 7 and is set to remain in effect until further notice. The TRCA has also issued a notice of caution specifically for the Scarborough Bluffs due to the potential of landslides.
The Essex Region Conservation Authority has also issued a flood watch for shorelines along Lake Erie and the shores of Pelee Island. Officials say both Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie started the month with above record high water levels that were reached in 1986.