October: What to expect from this notoriously volatile weather month ahead
A look at what we expect from this volatile weather month ahead.
October is here -- a month that is notorious for wild swings in temperature. It is also a month that has a rapid drop-off in "normal" temperatures. Most of Canada will lose 5 to 10°C off of their normal temperatures between now and Halloween.
The temperature plunge occurs faster across central Canada and slower near the coasts. For example, Winnipeg will see their average high temperatures drop from 15°C on October 1 to 5°C by October 31. In contrast, Vancouver sees their average high temperature drop from 16°C to 11°C.
Visit our Complete Guide to Fall 2019 for an in depth look at the Fall Forecast, tips to plan for it and a sneak peek at the winter ahead
So, we know that October will bring wild temperature swings with an overall decline in temperatures, but what else stands out? Here is a breakdown of what we expect from this volatile month.
October started off with a most impressive contrast in temperatures. October 1 featured record cold for parts of the west as southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan continue to dig out from an historic September snowfall. Meanwhile, mid-summer heat and humidity broke numerous records across southern Ontario.
This contrast in temperatures has quickly given way to a more uniform temperature pattern across the country. Colder than normal temperatures will dominate most of the country through the beginning of the weekend.
As we head into the second week of October, the temperature roller coaster will resume. We will finally see a couple of days of warmer (and dry) weather across the west.
However, this pattern will not last very long at all. Another blast of very cold weather will dive south into Alberta during Tuesday and spead east across the Prairies through the middle of next week. Fortunately, it will not get nearly as cold as what we saw last weekend, but we will have the threat for some snow. Meanwhile, a milder pattern will dominate across eastern Canada.
As we head into Thanksgiviging weekend, the chilly weather will continue to spread east, but it will really slow does as it tracks into into Ontario and Quebec. This region will see a warm start to the weekend followed by a cooling trend during the weekend. Meanwhile, the cold pattern will relax its grip across the west.
The temperature roller coaster will continue across Canada through mid-October.
However, at this point it looks like the pattern after October 20 will be more consistent and feature an extended period of above seasonal temperatures in the west and cooler than normal weather across much of the eastern half of Canada. This pattern is expected to hold into the beginning of November.
Be sure to check back on Monday, November 18 as we release the official 2019/2020 Winter Forecast.
