This Atlantic hurricane season might be strongest since 2012

Tuesday, August 23, 2016, 5:52 PM - Forecasters at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are expecting an increased chance of 12 to 17 named storms forming in the Atlantic Ocean this year.

The updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook notes a higher chance (70 per cent) for a near-normal or above-normal season, aligning with earlier predictions that this season would be the most active since 2012.

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The preliminary outlook highlighted the potential for 10 to 16 named storms, four to eight hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes, NOAA noted in a report.

The number of storms expected to become hurricanes has risen to five to eight, with two to four expected to become significant hurricanes.

“We’ve raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon,” Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement.

Bell adds that certain factors still need to be considered, however, that might hinder a very active season.

"[L]less conducive ocean temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and eastern subtropical North Pacific, combined with stronger wind shear and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea, are expected to prevent the season from becoming extremely active.”

If La Niña develops, it is expected to be weak, Bell notes, saying that it will have little impact on the season overall.

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The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season has seen five named storms so far, with two -- Alex and Earl -- escalating to hurricanes.

Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, and Earl all made landfall in either the southern U.S. or Central America.

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SOURCE: NOAA