Storm Watch: Messy, windy system arrives in eastern Canada

Monday, December 22, 2014, 9:34 AM - From northwestern Ontario all the way through to the East Coast, messy weather is making its way into the region just in time for Christmas.

The Weather Network is in Storm Watch for this system, whose effects will be uneven. Parts of eastern Canada could see up to 80 mm of rain, 25 cm of snow, but the biggest story for many communities will be strong winds, gusting up to 100 km/h in some locations, with weaker, but still stiff, gusts in others.

Here's an updated breakdown of what to expect and when.

Here's a comprehensive regional breakdown of what's coming, and when.

Northwestern Ontario

• How it plays out: Snow continues from Geraldton to Thunder Bay and west through Tuesday, tapering off in the evening.
• Snow amounts: Geraldton and northwest Ontario, 10-20 cm. Timmins/Kapuskasing/Wawa 15-30 cm.

Central Ontario/Nickel Belt

• How it plays out: Light snow moves in on Tuesday, with freezing rain possible through the evening and overnight. Precipitation will be mostly rain through Christmas Eve, with the rain/freezing/snow line sitting from Wawa through Kapuskasing, more or less. Late overnight Christmas Eve into early Christmas morning, all precipitation chances over to snow, continuing through Christmas Day.
• Wind: Winds will pick up through the day on Christmas, tapering off overnight. Gusts up to 80 km/h from Cottage Country south.
• Snow: 15-30 cm in the Wawa-Kapuskasing-Timmins area. 2-5 cm across Cottage Country, up to 20 cm near the lakes due to Lake Effect.

Greater Toronto Area and Southwest

• How it plays out: Rain pushes in late Tuesday morning in the southwest, eases off in the late afternoon, then re-intensifies through Christmas Eve, with periods of rain/snow or straight snow Christmas morning. 
• Snow: Trace amounts of 2 cm possible by Christmas night. 5-10 cm in the snow belt regions depending on lake effect.
• Rain: General amounts of 20-40 mm possible.
• Wind: The strongest winds push in Christmas Day, tapering off overnight. Gusts of 60-80 km/h possible, with Niagara seeing up to 90 km/h

Eastern Ontario

• How it plays out: Period of light snow and risk of freezing rain pushes through on Tuesday morning, switching to rain through the afternoon. Rain continues through Christmas Eve changing to periods of snow for Christmas Day. 
• Snow: Mostly a rain event, with periods of flurries or light snow. No real accumulation expected.
• Rain: Amounts likely in the 30-50 mm range. Freezing rain warning in effect for much of the east.
• Wind: The strongest winds push in for Christmas Day, tapering off in the evening, but this part of Ontario should dodge the worst of the winds.

Southern Quebec

• How it plays out: Light rain/snow mix with risk of freezing rain pushes in Tuesday morning. Minor accumulations possible for Eastern Townships. All precip will be rain through the evening into Christmas Eve. Around Quebec, snow will linger into the morning on Christmas Eve along with the slight chance of snow/freezing rain. All precip rain by Christmas Eve afternoon, snow continuing for the Laurentians. Precip tapers off Christmas Day. 
• Wind: Significant winds start in the Eastern Townships, up through the St. Lawrence through the afternoon Christmas Eve, tapering off Christmas morning.
• Rain: Amounts in the 30-60 mm range.
• Snow: Less than 5 cm across the south, 15-25 cm for the Laurentians. For the Gaspe, 4-8 cm before changing over to rain.

Maritimes

• How it plays out: At-times heavy rain pushes in the afternoon of Christmas Eve, continuing through Christmas Day, starting for PEI early Christmas Morning. Risk of freezing rain for Fredericton, 4-16 hours, and northern NB, 10-12 hours, meaning some ice accretion is possible, ending Christmas morning. Rain gradually tapers off Christmas night, should clear out by Boxing Day morning. Heavy rain and freezing rain also possible in western Newfoundland.
• Wind: Strong southeasterly winds start Christmas Eve night, continue Christmas Day, taper off by Boxing Day morning.
• Rain: 45-60 mm for southern parts of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and southwestern Newfoundland, where more than 60 is possible. 30-45 mm for most of New Brunswick and PEI.
• Snow: Northern New Brunswick will see periods of snow, but the real story will be rain.

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