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2018 U.S. SUMMER FORECAST | The Weather Network

SUMMER FORECAST: Your next 2 months of weather, here


Dr. Doug Gillham
Meteorologist, PhD

Thursday, June 21, 2018, 11:29 - Thursday marks the first official day of summer, with many places across the U.S. already having experienced extreme heat. The question now is how long will it stick around? We take a look at what you can expect for the remainder of June, July and August in The Weather Network’s 2018 Summer Forecast, below.

TEMPERATURES

A hot summer is expected across much of the U.S. with above normal or near normal temperatures forecast for the entire country. The overall pattern is a warmer version of what we saw last summer, with the hottest weather anchored across the western half of the U.S. The eastern third of the country will once again escape the hottest weather, but this summer will bring have more heat than last summer.

Warmer than normal temperatures are expected along the Eastern Seaboard from the Carolinas to Maine, but this is primarily due to the more humid conditions that will help to keep overnight temperatures warmer than normal. Daytime highs are expected to be near normal across this region with a typical number of days with highs reaching 90 ºF.

Near normal temperatures are expected for most of the Midwest and Great Lakes. These regions will be warmer than normal at times, especially during the first half of summer, but periods of cooler weather are also expected, especially during the second half of the season. Across parts of the Southeast, the wetter pattern will help to keep temperatures close to normal (which is still rather hot) through the summer.

PRECIPITATION

Our forecast highlights a dry summer for most of the Plains and much of the Pacific Northwest. Drought conditions have already developed across parts of this region and the drought is expected to worsen and become more widespread through the summer.

However, above normal rainfall is expected from Georgia to Maine, and across the eastern Great Lakes. Across these regions the total number of days with rain should be close to normal, but thunderstorms that develop and systems that track through this region are more likely to bring heavy rainfall and tip the final numbers to the wet side of normal.

Above normal rainfall is also expected across the Four Corners region where the monsoon season is expected to be wetter than normal during July and August. Any additional rain for this region will be most welcome after a very dry winter which has this region very concerned about the wildfire season. 

Drought conditions as of late May 2018.

Near normal rain totals are expected for California, but this region is typically very dry during the summer so even normal rainfall will not diminish concerns about the wildfire season. Above normal rain totals during March resulted in the growth vegetation that will continue to die off during the dry season, which could serve as extra fuel for any fires that do develop. A dry summer in the Pacific Northwest will also contribute to an elevated wildfire risk.

(SAFETY: Six important flood safety tips)

It is important to keep in mind, though, that summer precipitation is notorious for being highly variable over short distances and it is inevitable that localized areas will miss out on the showers and thunderstorms that occur in surrounding areas. In addition, localized storms can bring torrential rain and even flash flooding to areas where drought dominates a season.

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