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Severe thunderstorms target Gulf states, while snow hits northern Plains beyond Presidents Day. What you need to know.
PRESIDENTS DAY LONG WEEKEND

Flood, severe storm threat for Texas as low tracks eastward


Saturday, February 18, 2017, 2:17 - This past week it was tornadoes and next week it could be flooding for parts of Texas. 

Forecast models are hinting at a multi-day heavy rain event across the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast through mid-next week as a low moves in from the Gulf. Some storms could become severe for parts of Texas and southwestern Oklahoma on Sunday. Updates on warnings will be published here

Here's what you need to know.

Timing:

An amplified mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Southern Plains by Sunday (Feb. 19) and remain in place Monday through Friday (Feb. 20-25), according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This pattern will ultimately favor heavy rain -- localized rainfall totals of 3 inches or greater in a 24-hour period -- across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains Feb 19 to 20 (Sunday-Monday), shifting eastward to parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley Feb 21. Strong high winds of 32 mph or greater across portions of the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast Tuesday into Wednesday (Feb 21 to 22).

Click play to watch below: Storm track


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Accumulations:

Current forecast models indicate 5+” of rainfall likely across eastern Texas. In areas of thunderstorms, locally higher amounts will be possible.

The map below shows average precipitation amounts from Friday, Feb. 18 to Wednesday, Feb. 22 (NOAA):


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Impacts:

Heavy rainfall in a short period may lead to some areas experiencing flash flooding, say forecasters. In addition, high winds would likely be directed onshore so precaution should be taken regarding flooding potential especially along low lying coastal areas.


STORM TOOL KIT: Be prepared for severe weather with The Weather Network's online essentials: ALERTS | LIVE RADAR | UPLOAD PHOTOS/VIDEOS | LATEST NEWS | FOLLOW ON TWITTER | HIGHWAY FORECAST | AIRPORT FORECAST


Severe storm risk:

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Great Plains states on Sunday and Sunday night. There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms (risk of hail, damaging winds and/or isolated tornadoes) from northwestern Texas and southwestern Oklahoma into central and southern Texas. For updates on warnings, monitor the ALERTS page of our website.

If you come across a flooded roadway, do not attempt to drive through it. 

This will be a slow-moving system as it tracks eastward into Florida. The system is expected to push offshore early Thursday morning.


KEEP ON TOP OF ACTIVE WEATHER: Visit the Alerts section of the website


Watch below: Long range forecast


Source: Climate Prediction Center, National Weather Service

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