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High chance for excessive heat for central parts of the country. Meanwhile, the start of July will begin in possible unsettled conditions along the Northwest and Northeast. Here's what we're watching for the start of July across the U.S.
START OF JULY |Temperature Outlook

July pattern change to bring extreme heat to central U.S.


Friday, June 30, 2017, 9:00 - July will begin in typical form, with troughs over the Pacific Northwest and Northeast and a broad ridge centered over the west-central U.S. Current model guidance suggests that the ridge will be stronger than normal, meaning some extreme heat is in store for central parts of the country the first and second week of July.


SUMMER IS HERE: With El Niño helping shape global patterns what will Americans expect from summer? Find out with The Weather Network’s 2017 Summer Forecast | FORECAST & MAPS HERE


An upper-level ridge is expected to strengthen over the high Plains by early next week and begin to expand east across the central U.S., according to the Climate Prediction Center. This will result in much above-normal temperatures (10 degrees F or more) for the northern and central Plains on July 3 and 4.

"Maximum temperatures are expected to warm well into the 90s to near 100 degrees F by July 4 across this region," notes the agency in summery.

Click play to watch below: Temperature trend July 4-6

This heat is expected to intensify drought conditions across eastern Montana and the Dakotas, where pockets of severe drought are present, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.


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Heat will eventually spread eastward into the Midwest and eastern portions of the country -- however, rain may blunt the heat around July 4 and 5.

As for precipitation, the most likely area for heavy rain expected to shift back to the north across the northern/central Great Plains and Midwest on July 2 and 3. 

"Given the high moisture content of the atmosphere, thunderstorms throughout the central and eastern U.S. will be capable of triggering flash flooding [the first few days of July]," says the CPC.

From late Sunday into Tuesday, July 4, heavy showers are likely to extend from Kansas and Nebraska into Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. At this point it is still too early to pinpoint the exact location and timing of the most active weather on the Fourth of July, but expect a good deal of the action to start around the southern Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. 

During the second half of the day showers could move eastward into the northeastern states, the Appalachians and Smoky Mountains, the Tennessee River Valley. Towards the end of the day, the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coastline could also experience some wet weather.


SUMMER IS HERE: With El Niño helping shape global patterns what will Americans expect from summer? Find out with The Weather Network’s 2017 Summer Forecast | FORECAST & MAPS HERE


Looking at the month as a whole, there is an increased likelihood of above average temperatures across northern and eastern Maine, South Florida and parts of the Southwest, according to the CPC. There are currently no strong climate signals that would point toward an unusually wet or dry month, note forecasters. 

Be sure to check back to theweathernetwork.com for updates on possible storm activity on the Fourth of July and beyond. 

Want more information? Meteorologists Jaclyn Whittal and Dr. Doug Gillham talk you through the upcoming temperature pattern in the video that leads this article.


STORM TOOL KIT: Be prepared for severe weather with The Weather Network's online essentials: ALERTS | LIVE RADAR | UPLOAD PHOTOS/VIDEOS | LATEST NEWS | FOLLOW ON TWITTER | HIGHWAY FORECAST | AIRPORT FORECAST


Watch below: U.S. LONG RANGE FORECAST

Source: Climate Prediction Center

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