Friday, August 3, 2018, 18:35
The latest forecast published by the Tropical Meteorology Team at Colorado State University (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Sciences shows new adjustments to the Atlantic Hurricane season forecast update released back in early July. What was initially going to be an average to slightly above average Atlantic hurricane season, has now been downgraded to less than they originally anticipated.
With over two months of the season gone by, there has been very little activity, although the season will most likely pick up as we move into the typically more active weeks of August and September. The new numbers released by CSU now shown a total of 12 named storms (average 12), 5 hurricanes (average 6.5) and now only 1 major hurricane category 3 or stronger (average 3).
(SEE ALSO: Where do we find hurricanes in the late summer?)
Three storms have formed so far this year. Alberto was a subtropical system that formed on May 25 in the Caribbean Sea and made landfall a few days later in Laguna Beach, Florida. With Alberto forming before June 1, the official start of the hurricane season, this is the fourth consecutive year in which a preseason storm formed.
In July Beryl (Category 1) crossed the Atlantic into the Caribbean before shifting north and dissipating well east of New England. A few days later came Chris -- the strongest storm so far in the Atlantic this year -- with winds peaking at 105 mph (Category 2). After weakening and touching land in Newfoundland, it moved into the North Atlantic and vanished.
Pictured above: Hurricane Chris -- NOAA
Image courtesy of NOAA. El Niño model forecast as of July 2018.
Dr. Klotzbach, the lead researcher of the released forecast, also points out that the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season is looking a lot like those of 1968, 1986, 1993, 1994 and 2002, where multiple impacts occurred despite the season being overall less active. Even if we expect fewer storms this year, one can be enough to cause significant damage.
Image courtesy of NOAA. Tracks of historical hurricane landfalls.