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WINTER FORECAST 2019

What can snowbirds expect from Winter 2019?


Dr. Mario Picazo
Meteorologist, PhD

Tuesday, November 27, 2018, 2:39 PM - Florida and other destinations in the southern U.S. normally frequented by Canadians during the winter months are forecast to experience colder and wetter weather during the coming months. 

A persistent storm track across the south and occasional incursions of cold Arctic air from Canada, will help reshape the usual weather pattern experienced in this corner of the country. 

It's here! Check out The Weather Network's full 2019 Winter Forecast

ENHANCED PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH

Across the contiguous U.S. states, the Winter Forecast elaborated by The Weather Network calls for above normal precipitation from southern California across Texas into Florida, but also along the eastern seaboard from the Carolinas into New England.

Below normal precipitation is expected in the extreme northwest, from Washington into the Inner Mountain West, and from the upper Midwest south into the Central Plains.

The precipitation pattern is consistent with the El Niño pattern which is now developing in the tropical Pacific and is expected to strengthen during the next two months. El Niño tends to generate an active subtropical jet that enhances precipitation across the southern states of the country. Southern California and other drought stricken states of the Southwest like Arizona and New Mexico should see beneficial rain, although for some areas affected by recent wildfires it could also mean flooding and landslides. 

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. BUT WARMER NORTHWEST

During the winter months, the northwest, from central California into southwest Canada and west into the inner Mountain West states, will experience above normal temperatures. 

The same jet stream configuration responsible for the warmer conditions in the west, will bring below normal temperatures to much of the central and eastern U.S. as occasional incursions of cold Arctic air flow from Canada as far south as the Gulf states.  

The Weather Network Winter weather forecast maps for the U.S. show a pattern that is mainly consistent with a classic El Niño set-up, but also with other ocean-atmosphere anomalies driven by the Pacific "Blob." Although forecasts are calling for a weak El Niño to form, the developing pattern shows a more central Pacific-based sea surface temperature anomaly, rather than the classic eastern Pacific based one. 

Central Pacific-based El Niño winters tend to be colder in the eastern half of the country. Beyond El Niño, another recurring anomaly that is being taken into consideration in the forecast is the return of the "Blob" across the north Pacific, an ocean pattern which will promote more ridging over northwestern North America and more of a trough into the eastern U.S. 


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