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White Christmas: Yes or NO? Provincial breakdown, here


Michael Carter and Dr. Doug Gillham
Meteorologists

Friday, December 15, 2017, 4:22 PM - With Christmas rapidly approaching, many are asking what the weather has in store for the weeks ahead, and particularly, who has the best chances at seeing a white Christmas this year?

For parts of the country this question will come down to the wire. A system tracking coast to coast next week will be the key to delivering a white Christmas for many, but it could also wash away hopes for a white Christmas in other areas. 

The exact track of this system will be the key to who sees snow versus rain with this system.

Read on for all the details.

December started out mild across the country, but thanks to a pattern change during the second week of the month, an intense temperature contrast set up, with dry and much warmer than normal temperatures centered just east of the Rockies (shades of red, orange, and brown on the map), and Arctic air spilling south across Hudson Bay into Ontario and Quebec (areas in blue, green, and purple). 

This cold air over the continent set up a zone of sharp difference with the warm Atlantic, leading to an increasingly active coastal storm track.

The effects of this pattern can be seen on the current snow cover map (see below).

In the west, snow lingers in the mountains and at high latitudes, but mild days have significantly eroded the snowpack for southern Alberta and Saskatchewan.

In contrast much of the east, including the Great Lakes, which now has snow cover all the way to the U.S. border. The Atlantic coast has remained largely snow-free due to the influence of marine air, but that will change for some areas this weekend with a winter storm targeting southeastern Newfoundland.

The current pattern will continue into early next week, with cold air centred in the east and mild weather continuing in the west. However, a major pattern change is on the way for the Prairies for the final days leading up to Christmas.

Here is look at the national temperature pattern that is expected for December 20-24. Colder-than-normal temperatures are expected to dominate from British Columbia to the Maritimes.

With this pattern in place, here's what we expect leading up to Christmas region-by-region.

British Columbia

Lower elevations along the west coast will see the slimmest chances of a white Christmas across Canada this year. 

This should come as no surprise to longtime residents, as Vancouver and Victoria typically see snow on the ground on Christmas just over 10 per cent of the time. 

However, those that do want to see some Christmas snow only need to go up several hundred metres as higher elevations should maintain snow cover even in this Pacific-influenced pattern.

The system on Tuesday, which will bring rain to the south coast of B.C., will bring abundant snow to most ski areas and snow is expected for the interior, including the Okanagan Valley.


Visit our Complete Guide to Winter 2017/18 for tips on how to to survive it, and much more.


Alberta and Saskatchewan 

Areas that survive this week’s mild pattern with snow on the ground will hold onto it through Christmas once the cold air arrives. 

In addition, a system tracking just south of the border will deliver a swatch of snow across southern Alberta, including Calgary. However, it looks like Edmonton will be too far to the north to receive significant snow from this system. The snow will continue to spread east across southern Saskatchewan Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Behind this system, temperatures should remain cold enough to hold onto the snow through Christmas. 

Watch: Western Canada, if snow arrives, it'll stay


Manitoba and northern Ontario 

Most of Manitoba and northern Ontario are already snow-covered, and should easily remain so until Christmas.

There is very little doubt that traditionally reliable white Christmas locations such as Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, and Timmins will have snow on the ground Christmas morning.

Great Lakes

The Great Lakes region is currently snow-covered and the snow belt areas will have no problem holding onto, or even increasing their snow pack by Christmas. 

However, for parts of southern Ontario, including the GTA, the picture is more uncertain. 

Temperatures early next week will rise above freezing for a couple of days and diminish the snow cover. In addition, a system will track into the region late Thursday and into Friday and the exact track of that system will be the key to a white vs. green Christmas for many along and south of the 401 corridor, including the Greater Toronto Area.

If this system tracks across central Ontario, it will bring a surge of milder air and a period of rain that would likely wipe out the shallow snowpack across much of southern Ontario. 

However, if this storm takes a more southerly track, just south of border, it will solidify the likelihood for a white Christmas across this region. Behind this system, colder air will surge back into the region, leaving open the potential for a last minute snowfall even if the late week system does melt snow that is currently in place.

The uncertainty around this active weather will make this region a close call, and it may come down to the wire. We will keep a close eye on the forecast in the days leading up to Christmas, so please check back for updates. 

Eastern Ontario and Quebec

This region already has significant snow on the ground and appears likely to keep it.

The only potential complications would be if the late-week system tracks further to the north than expected. If that were to occur, then much of the snow would melt across areas near the international border, though there could still be a last minute opportunity for snow during Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. 

Watch: Storm potential is real, what we are watching here


Atlantic Canada 

Mild marine air has kept the coast snow-free so far, but a system will bring snow to southern Nova Scotia on Saturday and heavy snow for eastern Newfoundland, including the Avalon, during Saturday and Saturday night.

However, a series of systems during the mid and late week will bring a couple rounds of rain to the southern Maritimes including Halifax and to eastern Newfoundland during the middle and end of next week. 

As a result, a white Christmas across these regions is in jeopardy and may come down to the track of a system around Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.


Still looking for gift ideas? We've got you covered.


Christmas and beyond 

After Christmas, we expect frigid Arctic air to continue to bring below seasonal temperatures to most of Canada east of the Rockies. With the door open for cross-polar flow, Siberian air will likely make an appearance at some point during the final week of 2017, which is how we get some of our most memorable cold outbreaks across North America.

WATCH BELOW: Few can do it, how to untangle Christmas lights in under 3 minutes


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