Record highs broken as warmth floods the West
theweathernetwork.com
Monday, November 7, 2016, 5:46 PM - The weekend warmth continues in the Prairies - but for how long?
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An extended period of warmth is underway, with widespread temperatures 5 to 15 C above normal across the Prairies and into northwestern Ontario -- crushing not just single-day records in some provinces, but also records for the entire month of November.
Alberta saw several records on Saturday, while the peak warmth shifted eastward on Sunday to knock down records in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and northern Ontario.
"In addition, some of these stations not only broke the daily record, but also broke the record for the warmest November day ever reported," Environment Canada says of northwestern Ontario, specifically the communities of Red Lake, Sioux Lookout, Geraldton and Pickle Lake.
Driving the warm temperatures is a an unusual - climatologically speaking - ridge in the jet stream, allowing milder air to flood the region from the south. Typically at this time of the year, we start to see a shift in the storm track across North America as the jet stream slumps southward and cold air pools down from the Arctic.
As the ridge continually rebuilds through the first half of November highs in the mid-upper teens are in the forecast for areas where the seasonal average typically sits around 0oC. In addition, little to no precipitation is expected for much of the Prairies for the next several days.
Several records may be threatened in Alberta again Tuesday and Wednesday, as southwesterly flow over the mountains contributes to the rising temperatures.
A sharp contrast to October
The month of October brought an early taste of winter to much of western Canada, with frequent Pacific storms crashing into the B.C. coast, and clipper systems leaving swaths of impactful snow across the Prairies.
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Temperatures for the month, as the above map shows, were below normal across much of the region (shades of blue). The coldest areas of northeastern B.C., central Alberta, and southwestern Saskatchewan averaged more than 3oC below normal for the month (shades of green).
However, October’s false start to winter has lost its grip, and late summer-like warmth has been the norm for the region for the past few days, and will continue for the foreseeable future.
A broad ridge has been developing over central North America, allowing a warm, southwesterly flow to continue, flooding the Prairies with unseasonably mild air.
Of course it’s important to remember that November is one of our transitional months, and normal temperatures are on the decline through the period – even during a warm pattern. Nonetheless, the return of winter-like cold should be stalled for at least the first half of the month.
This warm pattern in central and western Canada should hold on until around mid-month, when we expect to see our next large-scale change. The ridge position should shift westward by this time, which should finally bring a break in the series of coastal storms, and keep warm Pacific air in place over B.C.
However, at the same time the door will be open for Arctic air to return to the east. The coldest air will be centered on the Great Lakes, but there will be a sharp contrast across the Prairies, with the western part of the region near to above normal, and the eastern and central zones returning to colder than normal temperatures.
With files from Michael Carter.
