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Now that 97L has officially developed into Tropical Storm Matthew the question is: Could it become the strongest storm of this 2016 season? Here's what we're watching.
ATLANTIC BASIN

Tropical Storm Matthew could become a strong hurricane


Dr. Mario Picazo
Meteorologist, PhD

Wednesday, September 28, 2016, 4:12 PM - There is still a lot of uncertainty about the future of Tropical Storm Matthew, which formed overnight just east of the Lesser Antilles and now sails the Caribbean waters westbound, with sustained wind speeds of 95 km/h.

The majority of models had predicted this would happen, but what is still not clear is how strong Matthew will be beyond the weekend and what path it will decide to follow.


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WATCH BELOW: Current track forecast

Most computer forecasts published Wednesday agree that Matthew will continue to track west at least until Friday compressed by a high pressure ridge that extends all the way from the ABC Islands to the north. 

Between Tuesday and Friday, atmospheric conditions are not the most favourable for Matthew to intensify as it moves relatively close to coastal Venezuela, where dry air will be advected into the region of influence of the storm. 

Wind shear will will also be higher than Wednesday during the next 48 hours, another limiting factor for potential strengthening of Matthew at least until late Thursday.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are closing the large discrepancy gap observed in Monday's runs. The GFS continues to make Matthew stronger than the ECMWF and take it to the north between Jamaica and eastern Cuba by the weekend, whereas ECMWF maintains a more westerly track. However, the direction of motion of Matthew calculated by ECMWF is now closer to that of the GFS.


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Matthew expected to make a sharp turn to the north by the weekend

If the synoptic situation predicted by most models holds into the weekend, after reaching the edge of the high pressure ridge to west, Matthew will make a sharp turn north steered by an upper-level low pressure area that will most likely be centered over the east-central US by the weekend. 

This system would help drag the storm to the north sometime on Saturday. With that possible track in mind, the uncertainty now is if it will cross Jamaica into eastern Cuba, or follow an earlier turn to the north across eastern Cuba and Haiti sliding the storm somewhere along the Windward Passage towards the southern Bahamas.

Watch Below: Two scenarios current models are showing


With this weekend path in mind across the Cuba/Haiti region, Matthew would continue to move north across the Bahamas early next week. 

However, the potential track area for Matthew widens considerably with time as and as it moves north. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favourable for re-development once the storm moves into open Atlantic Ocean waters, so even if Matthew does lose punch moving close or across mountainous land areas like eastern Cuba or Haiti, it should soon encounter lower wind shear, very warm waters and a tremendous amount of water vapor to regroup and strengthen again.

It is very early to say, but the GFS and other models are expecting Matthew to grow into a major hurricane sometime mid-week next week as it approaches the Cape Hatteras area before turning north into the Northeast section of the U.S. just before the weekend.

Could Matthew follow the steps of Hurricane Sandy? Check back here for updates.

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