Spring 2016: The science of predicting three months ahead

Visit this Spring Forecast Guide to the Season for the 2016 Spring Forecast, Summer Weather Preview and much more.

Monday, February 29, 2016, 9:39 AM - How will one of the strongest El Niño events on record impact Canada's weather this spring and summer? Find out what you can expect for the next several months when The Weather Network releases its spring forecast and summer preview on Monday, February 29 at 9:00 pm.

In the meantime Meteorologist Dr. Doug Gillham provides some insight on the process for developing our spring forecast.

THE BIG REVEAL: How will El Niño affect your spring? Find out on The Weather Network’s Spring Forecast. Premiering February 29, 2016, at 9PM ET #SpringForecast

Can you really forecast the weather for the next three months?

Yes and no. If you want to know if it rain during the May 24 long weekend, you will have to wait quite a while for a forecast with those details. Seasonal forecasts stay away from the details that you look for in a daily forecast – such as when will the rain start/end.

Our spring forecast provides an overview of the dominant weather patterns that we expect for the upcoming season, such as will winter linger into spring or will summer weather come early?

While forecasting the dominate weather patterns for an entire season is a difficult challenge (that we don't always get right), this is often less tricky than forecasting if it will rain on your weekend plans.

What is the process for developing a seasonal forecast?

There are two primary elements that we use to develop our seasonal forecasts. First, we analyze global weather patterns and sea surface temperature patterns and then we seek to identify years in the past that had similar patterns and study the weather that was associated with those years across North America.

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Years in the past that had similar patterns to this year are called analogue years. Identifying the correct analogue years and researching the associated weather patterns is usually be more helpful than computer models when it comes to forecasting the weather patterns for upcoming seasons.

However, we do analyze computer models which are produced by weather services around the world. These models have some success in predicting how large scale patterns around the world will develop and change during the next few months. However, the models will often disagree with each other or come up with forecasts that does not make sense meteorologically and we need to be able to recognize those errors.

What are the keys to the Spring 2016 forecast?

El Niño peaked during November and it will continue to weaken through the spring and into the summer. Nevertheless, it will continue to influence our weather for the next several months.

The greatest challenge for the spring forecast is the lack of strong analogue years. While the strength of this year’s El Niño event was comparable to 1998 and 1983, the current sea surface temperature pattern around the world is very different from what we saw during either of those two years. Therefore, studying those years for clues to our spring pattern has limited value. In fact, there are very few years in history that look similar enough to our current pattern to be considered helpful in developing our forecast. That does make the forecast for this spring more challenging than the past two springs.

Are there any clues can be found in the weather from the winter to forecast for the upcoming spring and summer?

One cannot forecast the upcoming spring simply based on the previous winter. History shows us that sometimes mild winters transition smoothly into a warm spring, but other times winter can show up at the last minute and then linger well into spring.

However, the lack of ice on the Great Lakes will have some impact on early spring temperatures for parts of Ontario. When warmer weather does arrive, there will be less of a cooling influence near lakeshore areas than we saw during the past two years.

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