Screaming winds, blizzard condition concerns in Newfoundland

Thursday, March 30, 2017, 8:01 PM - We're just over a week into astronomical spring, but looking at the Atlantic Canada forecast you would think otherwise.

The pattern in motion for Atlantic Canada through the weekend is rather interesting from a meteorological point of view -- and if you enjoy snow and intense winds exceeding 100 km/h in some areas.

A low in the Atlantic has combined with a trough and surface low off the northeast U.S., developing into an intense monster 960-965 millibar low pressure system just offshore of Atlantic Canada by Thursday.

Locations to Watch

This system is expected to mainly impact eastern Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island out of the Maritime provinces with gusty winds and moderate snow. As of Thursday evening, snowfall warnings were in effect for parts of Cape Breton Island, while blowing snow advisories were in effect for other parts of eastern Nova Scotia.

But Newfoundland is expected to take the brunt of this low, with moderate to heavy snow at times along with strong winds, which will likely bring about blizzard conditions. I'll break down what to expected below.

Maritimes

The track of the low will have the region dodge the worst this storm has to offer, but this doesn't mean the area won't see its fair share of snow.

Snowfall amounts are expected to be rather variable across the region, with anywhere from 10 to 15 cm from the Halifax area through to Amherst and the Moncton region. Locally, some areas could see upwards of 20 cm in Prince Edward Island. As you travel northward through Nova Scotia into Cape Breton, the sea enhancement will have more of a pronounced effect giving a broader range with higher amounts near 15 to 30 cm. There is also the potential for western portions of Cape Breton and areas along the Northumberland Strait to see localized areas slightly above the 30 cm mark.

The winds are not likely to be too much of a factor from a Maritime standpoint, but northern portions of Nova Scotia, Cape Breton, and Prince Edward Island will see strongest winds develop Wednesday night out of the northwest, continuing through the day Friday with the potential for gusts near 50 to 80 km/h at times. This will lead to blowing and drifting snow with periods of reduced visibility.

Newfoundland

Heaviest snowfall is expected push into eastern portions of the province through the day Thursday, with moderate to heavy snowfall continuing through Friday morning. Snow should start to ease late Friday and finally taper off late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

"The Avalon is going to see a transition to ice pellets, freezing rain, and rain through the day Thursday," says The Weather Network meteorologist Kelly Sonnenburg. "The heaviest snow will be located in central Newfoundland."

Sonnenburg adds that there's the potential for more snow on the way.

"As the system begins to departs midday Friday, colder air moving in behind it will allow the transition back to snow at that time."

Accumulations are somewhat tricky and will vary widely across the province. General amounts near 20 to 50 cm of snow are expected with the northern coast of the province, essentially along the Trans Canada Highway corridor. The Avalon is likely to be on the higher end of the range. Some regions will potentially receive above the 50 cm mark. This is mainly since the strong northerly to northwesterly winds will allow for some localized sea enhancement.

Gusty northerly to northeasterly winds will develop across the province Thursday. Thursday night through Friday night winds will pickup in intensity significantly out of the north to northwest, mainly for eastern portions of the province, including the Avalon Peninsula and the northern shores. Latest forecast is indicating that sustained winds near 50 to 75 km/h are possible, with gusts of 80 to 110 km/h possible. Despite there being the risk for some wet snow or even mixing through Friday, winds will be strong enough to likely bring about blizzard conditions with zero visibility at times across the areas mentioned above.

Some minor structural damage could occur as well mainly for coastal and more exposed regions. This is in part due to the previous significant wind event that may have compromised some structures. Needless to say, it would be wise to avoid any travel through the weekend across Newfoundland.

As the low departs on Saturday we will be eyeing the potential for another potent system. If you recall the second image above there is another low pressure system taking shape off the U.S. East Coast. Long range models currently have this second low taking a similar track to the storm expected for this weekend. Details are still rather murky to say who will see what in terms of snow amounts or precipitation types, but the possibility is there for back-to-back significant storms.