THE COLORADO LOW
If you’re a weather enthusiast, weather junkie and/or weather-aware like we are here at The Weather Network, you’ve certainly heard the terms clipper and Colorado low before.
You may also recall that Colorado lows tend to pack a little bit of a bigger punch in the winter than their younger sibling, the clipper.
Middle sibling, the Colorado low, is set to impact southern Ontario Saturday and Sunday.
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It’s a complicated one though, because this system will tap into some Gulf moisture and warmth and what that means is the exact track of the system will determine the type of precipitation that falls in your area.
Water vapour image (courtesy College of Dupage's NEXLAB) showing moisture that will move into western U.S. to aid in developing the Colorado Low.
Precipitation from this second system will move into southern Ontario Saturday morning coming from the southwest and move northeast.
Most areas in southern Ontario will begin as snow but some will change to a rain-snow mix and even rain on Saturday. By the early-to-mid afternoon, snow will move into the Greater Toronto Area and push north towards Cottage Country. Eastern Ontario and southern Quebec will get into the snow late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. By Sunday morning, the precipitation would have tapered off.
Let’s talk precipitation types and the tricky forecast. Along the warm front of this low there will be an area of mixing and perhaps a brief area of freezing rain. Areas south of that line will experience rain. A more westerly track for this low would then spell out a period of mixing or rain for parts of Niagara region and the GTA. A more easterly track would spell more snow for the aforementioned areas.
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The Canadian forecast model has been pulling the track slightly more east over the last few runs with a track right up the axis of southern Ontario which would spell a period of rain or mixing.
The 12Z GFS forecast model today is taking a more easterly track with the centre of the low passing just south of Lakes Erie and Ontario; this spells mostly snow for southern Ontario.
Given the pattern and the scenario playing out amongst forecast models, a solution at the moment would suggest that the 401 corridor will certainly see a bout of snow from this system but should experience a period of mixing. There still is the slight change for some rain in that area but it is more likely Niagara region would have the better chance of seeing some rain.
This is certainly a tricky forecast due to the uncertainty in the track. We will keep checking with every new forecast model run and update our forecasts as we approach Saturday and the beginning of this system.
12Z GFS forecast model's solution for precipitation types Saturday night: All snow for southern Ontario but this is the snowiest solution of all models at the moment.
12Z Canadian forecast model's solution for low’s track Saturday night: Along the axis of southern Ontario meaning mixed precipitation for points east of the track and snow for points west.
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