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Soggy pattern continues for northern Ontario, timing here


Brad Rousseau
Meteorologist

Sunday, September 24, 2017, 8:54 PM - Temperatures well above the seasonal average have been dominating the eastern portion of the country, with below normal temperatures and even snow across portions of the west.

This pattern is expected to linger into next week, and will continue to be highly amplified, with a large deep trough across the western portion of North America and a strong ridge across the central and eastern half.

As the trough slowly starts to push east, this pattern is poised to gradually start breaking down, which will bring bouts of rain, heavy at times, across northern Ontario.


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With this type of pattern, you get a sharp frontal zone that sets up at the interface of the trough and the ridge. As disturbances pivot around the broad upper level trough in the west, low pressure systems develop at the surface along the frontal boundary as shown below. Once the lows develop they will move north-northeastward along the jet stream. With the large amplitude ridge in place, excessive amounts of Gulf moisture are drawn north as these lows develop. This was the case over the weekend, and it's expected to persist through early this week as a series of lows develop across the central U.S. and track through northern Ontario.

The pattern in place is ideal to bring significant rainfall across much of northern Ontario, with a thunderstorm potential as well.



Over the weekend, several bouts of rain targeted northern Ontario. As we look into the first half of the work week, another 30-50 mm can be expected.

Due to the convective nature of the precipitation, some regions could see above what the forecast guidance is indicating, and these are the areas that will be problematic.

The take home here is that a good portion of northern Ontario will see significant rainfall over the next few days, particularly if you are located within the broad swath of heavier rain (above), which would be in the 30-50+ mm range.

Check back for updates as we continue to monitor the forecast.

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