Ontario: Shot of snow before major change, fall-like storm
Monday, December 24, 2018, 12:26 PM - Much of southern Ontario is sitting firmly in the 'no chance' zone on the white Christmas map, but there are some seeing those white Christmas dreams come true at the last minute this Christmas eve. Even where we do see some last-minute snow, however, it'll be a close call as to who manages to hold onto it until the big day. And don't count on that snow sticking around for long -- a much more fall-like storm is on the horizon for later this week. We take a look at who's getting snow, and when the double-digit temperatures return to southern Ontario, below.
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- Skiff of snow across southern Ontario with Alberta clipper on Monday
- Lake-effect snow boosts totals for Huron-Perth, southern Georgian Bay
- Mild pattern persists after Christmas and into first week of January; large, fall-like system late week
COLDER WEATHER, SNOW FOR SOME RETURN AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS
Lake-effect snow is turning parts of the southern Ontario snow belt into a wintry wonderland on Monday, with up to 10 cm reported by Monday morning along the shores of Lake Huron thanks to some persistent snow bands.
Unfortunately for spots southwest of Hamilton, most of these bands are concentrated north of the 401 corridor between Toronto and London; south of that, time has about run out for any chance of seeing a coating of snow on the ground for Christmas morning.
WATCH BELOW: QUICK SHOT OF SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
Up to 5 cm (locally higher in snow bands) are expected over Huron-Perth, near southern Georgian Bay, and for parts of the Kawarthas. Expect a dusting to about 3 cm over eastern Ontario, with only a trace in the cards for the National Capital Region, Golden Horseshoe, and most of southwestern Ontario.
BUT DOES IT LAST UNTIL CHRISTMAS MORNING?
This may be the key question on many minds, both for those with travel plans and for those who want to see snow on the ground Christmas morning. "With temperatures rising a degree or two above freezing, much of the snow is expected to melt aside from a patchy dusting that could survive," says Dr. Doug Gillham, a meteorologist at The Weather Network. "This lack of snow and near seasonal conditions on Christmas day may be disappointing for some, but will make for another easy travel day, especially in comparison to last year's major Christmas day snowstorm."
North of the 401, particularly up into the snow belts, and into central and southeastern Ontario, temperatures are less likely to crack that freezing mark Monday and Tuesday, and that means the last-minute snowfall has a much better chance of sticking around.
MILD PATTERN CLOSES OUT 2018
By Thursday and into Friday, any snow that lingers will be on its way out, as a fall-like storm with widespread rain and very mild temperatures makes its way into southern Ontario. "Rain will begin as freezing rain north of the GTA, including cottage country and into eastern Ontario," says Gillham. "Precipitation may begin as snow before changing to freezing rain for parts of cottage country, Algonquin, the Ottawa Valley, and southern Quebec. Double digit temperatures are also likely on Friday for parts of southern Ontario."
A colder pattern is expected after January 3, but so far guidance is divided on whether or not this marks the beginning of the more persistent winter pattern, or if we're in for a few more bouts swinging temperatures before the cold settles in for the winter.