A little taste of everything for Thanksgiving in Montréal

Wednesday, October 4, 2017, 7:00 AM - Generous helpings of sun and cloud are on the weather menu for this year’s Action de grâce in Montréal, complete with a few rounds of showers to help it all go down smoothly.

Whether you’ll be getting together with family and friends, or will be out exploring Quebec’s beautiful countryside, here’s a look ahead to what you can expect weather-wise this long weekend in and around the 514. 

Quick facts:

• A few rounds of showers are expected on Saturday, but are not likely to lead to any significant accumulations at this time.  Daytime high temperatures will be near seasonal (upper-teens), with winds increasing throughout the evening and overnight.  
• Chance for a few showers Sunday morning, though the afternoon/evening hours are likely to remain precipitation-free with skies clearing throughout the day.  Temperatures will increase to the low 20s with mild southwesterly winds, which could gust up to 50 km/h. 
• Monday is also likely to remain largely dry, though clouds will be increasing late in the day and a slight risk for showers in the evening.  Temperatures will be the warmest of the weekend, with daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s, and winds remaining fairly calm. 

The longer version

Although high pressure has been locked in place over southern Ontario and southern Quebec these past few days, which has led to mild temperatures and sunny skies, a low pressure system is set to bring periods of rain and gusty winds to the city this Thanksgiving weekend – but it won’t be a washout by any means. 

Current model guidance hints at showers beginning in the city on Saturday afternoon, remaining off and on through Sunday morning.  Accumulations should remain under 5 mm, though this could change depending on the track this low takes.  Daytime high temperatures should remain close to seasonal or above, hovering between 15-18C.

Skies are expected to clear throughout the day Sunday as the winds pick up from the southwest.  In addition to gusting to close to 50 km/h in the afternoon, temperatures will start to boost up into the low 20s by the afternoon, which is well above the climatological normal of 14˚C. 

This warmth will increase even further on Thanksgiving Day, making Monday the warmest day of the weekend by far.  Daytime high temperatures for the city are presently forecast to reach near 25C, which coincidentally would tie the temperature record for the city set back in 1958.  The winds are expected to be much calmer this day as well.  

Though it will be warm, it is not guaranteed to be entirely precipitation-free.  Moisture associated with a tropical disturbance state-side has the potential to cross over into Ontario and Quebec Monday evening, which could end the long weekend with a few showers.  That said, a lot of uncertainty remains in this particular part of Monday’s forecast, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on it as we get closer to the weekend.  

The verdict

All things considered, this long weekend is shaping up to be pretty good in and around Montréal, especially considering the above seasonal temperatures forecast for both Sunday and Monday. 

Even though some showers are likely to fall at some point this weekend, it will not be a wash-out by any means. 

So whether or not you will be feasting upon the traditional fare this Thanksgiving weekend with friends and family, hopefully you’ll be able to savour what Mother Nature will be offering! 

Stay tuned for updates to this weekend’s forecast as they become available.