Staycation or getaway: March Break forecast answers question

Thursday, March 9, 2017, 1:47 PM - You’ve almost made it, my fellow Ontarians: March Break is just around the corner!

Whether you’re lucky enough to be flying to somewhere warm, road-tripping to the United States, or having a relaxing staycation here at home, you’re likely wondering if your much-anticipated vacation is at risk of being disrupted by Mother Nature this year.

The good news is that it doesn’t look like any major weather system will be impacting Ontario at the start of the break (hooray!)  However, for those flying out on Friday or travelling through the U.S. this weekend, there are still a few weather-related events to be aware of. 

Read on to see what’s in store for the beginning of your March Break! 

Flight Delays Possible Friday

If you and your family will be flying out of any airport in southern Ontario on Friday, precipitation is unlikely to be the main cause any significant delays; Although lake-effect snow is forecast to come off of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, only a few centimeters of snow is expected to fall in the GTA, while 2-5 cm could accumulate just east of Lake Huron.

While this snow has the potential to temporarily reduce visibility on the roads (and runways) the greater concern for departing flights on Friday will be the strong northwesterly winds anticipated for Friday afternoon and evening.

Although they are not presently forecast to be as strong as the wind gusts southern Ontario experienced on Wednesday afternoon (which reached up to 115 km/h in places!) northwesterly wind gusts of up to 60 km/h are forecast for the latter half of Friday. 

Naturally, strong wind gusts pose a significant threat to air travel, and have historically resulted in delays at major airports across the country.  Be sure to contact your airline or check online for your flight’s departure status before you head out!

If you are flying on Saturday or Sunday out of southern Ontario, the winds are forecast to gust only to around 30 km/h, which is unlikely to cause any significant disruptions.

Unsettled U.S.

South of the border, a clipper is expected to track across the Midwest to New England on Friday, bringing with it a widespread 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of snow to states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York.

Naturally, this has the potential to lead to a few slow-downs on the major interstates like the I-75, I-80 and I-90, especially during Friday morning and into the early afternoon. Fortunately, this system is expected to quickly head out to the Atlantic, and is not likely to bring snow south of Kentucky or Virginia.  

Much clearer conditions are expected across the eastern U.S. on Saturday, making for a much easier travel day.

However, come Sunday, yet another clipper could bring upwards of 15 cm (6 inches) of snow to parts of Tennessee and the Carolinas, almost certainly disrupting travel in these areas that day.

Staycationing? Chilly But Fair Conditions For You

If you’ve opted to spend the March Break at home, winter enthusiasts can look forward to mainly sunny skies, with below seasonal temperatures and the occasional bout of lake-effect snow, depending on where you are. 

Daytime high temperatures are forecast to be in the negative single digits across the majority of the province throughout this weekend, with overnight lows in the minus double digits.

But all meteorological eyes are on a developing system for Monday: Forecast models are hinting a system tracking across, or just south of southern Ontario that day, intensifying rapidly over the northeastern United States through Tuesday.

Significant uncertainty remains in this system’s forecast track, but it has the potential to bring widespread accumulating snow across southern Ontario for Monday into Tuesday.

South of the border, this system has the potential to bring impressive snowfall from New York City to Boston; Some models are calling for over a foot of snow in this region!

Evidently, we will be keeping a close eye on the development of this system as the details become more clear.

Safe travels!

No matter how you choose to enjoy the upcoming break, stay safe and be sure to check your local forecast for the most up-to-date weather information in your area.

Oh, and remember: Spring is less than two weeks away!