Dust off the shovels: Lake-effect snow hits the Great Lakes
Meteorologist
Sunday, January 29, 2017, 10:40 AM - Persistent flow out of the northwest that set up over the Great Lakes this weekend, which meant one thing for those living snowbelts -- the shovels will be in full-swing.
Lake effect snow - enhanced by a few weak disturbances moving over the region - will bring some impressive accumulations to the New York and Pennsylvania snowbelts this weekend, with lake enhanced snow reaching as far away as the western Appalachians.
Lake-effect snow warnings and winter weather advisories remain in effect off the shores of Lakes Ontario and Erie, as some areas, including the Tug Hill Plateau and the Buffalo Southtowns, prepare for close to two feet of snow through Sunday night.
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An upper-level trough centered over Eastern Canada has allowed colder air to filter back into the Great Lakes region, dropping highs as much as 10 degrees between Thursday and Friday. While this is not true Arctic air, it will provide ample instability to allow lake effect bands to develop, and the northwest flow will keep them up and running through the weekend.
Lake effect potential increased dramatically Friday night, as temperatures aloft continue to fall. As instability increases, so will snowfall rates, with the potential for a bit of lake effect thundersnow over the Tug Hill Plateau.
Bands of snow will likely reach as far as the western Appalachians across central Pennsylvania and West Virginia, where up-slope flow will enhance snow production. Localized areas in this region may see up to a foot of accumulation by the time snow tapers off on Monday.
While the overall pattern will keep winds out of the west or northwest, several weak troughs will also pass through the area between Friday and Monday, causing bands to meander a bit and giving the potential for more widespread bursts of snow even outside of established bands. The best chances for these disturbances to crank snow production up a notch come Friday evening and overnight Saturday into Sunday.
This second wave shifted winds to be more out of the west late Saturday and Saturday night, letting bands drift northward and bringing the potential for heavy snow bands to shift into the Buffalo metro area.
In addition to heavy snowfall rates, gusty winds will limit visibility even further near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, leading to periods of white outs and very difficult travel in snow squall bands. The coldest air for the region arrives late Sunday into Monday, bringing the chilliest morning of the period to start the work week.
Lake effect should come to an end late Monday, as warmer air arrives in advance of the next system.
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