High impact lake-effect snow to bring up to 60 cm to some
Meteorologist
Monday, December 4, 2017, 6:12 PM - Canadians travelling into the U.S. this week, take note: Heavy lake-effect snow is expected to develop as a blast of Arctic air spreads across the Great Lakes and Northeast, causing localized whiteouts and up to 60 cm of snow in some areas.
Mild temperatures with soaking rainfall will precede this system on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Behind the cold front, Arctic air will rush across the Great Lakes in the evening hours of Tuesday setting the stage for a substantial lake-effect snow event.
Lake-effect snow will initially develop Tuesday afternoon in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan following the passage of the cold front. Southwest winds behind the cold front blowing across Lake Superior will focus the heaviest snowfall on the Keweenaw Peninsula. Thus, a winter storm warning remains in effect for the Keweenaw Peninsula where as much as 15 inches of snow will be possible by Wednesday morning. In addition, there will also be another band of lake-effect snow streaming off of Lake Michigan which will be directed towards the Traverse City in the northern part of the state.
As colder air continues to spread further southeast towards New York, lake-effect snow will develop during the late evening hours on Tuesday for areas northeast of Lake Ontario, and northeast of Lake Erie, with heavy snow potential for the City of Buffalo.
A southwest wind direction blowing across Lake Erie will direct a heavy snow band into the Buffalo area which will bring hazardous driving conditions for the Wednesday morning commute in the area. The southwest flow will also target areas in Jefferson County as a potent snow band develops off of Lake Ontario.
By Wednesday evening, the winds will begin to shift to a more westerly direction, allowing for the plume of lake-effect snow to be directed to areas east of Lake Erie in Lake Ontario.
On Thursday evening, the air flow will once again switch to the southwest bringing another round of heavy snow into the Buffalo metro and Watertown area before eventually easing by Friday afternoon.
Snow amounts will be significant, with 30 to 60 cm of snow possible in and around the Buffalo area by Friday afternoon. Locally, some areas could receive more than 60 cm, particularly in the Buffalo Southtowns. Also, some areas in Jefferson County east of Lake Ontario could receive as much as 30 to 40 cm of snow, with potentially higher amounts in the Tug Hill region.
While the first lake-effect event will eventually be disrupted by the end of the week due to a unfavorable wind direction, there is potential for a second round of lake-effect snow to develop by this weekend and continue into the start of next week. The meteorology team will continue to monitor the latest forecast data on this event and will provide further updates as the week progresses. Be sure to check back regularly for updates!
