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Dr. Doug Gillham takes a look at the latest models and forecast for August. Find out what's in store, weather-wise.

July weather pattern continues into August

Dr. Doug Gillham
Meteorologist, PhD

Thursday, July 31, 2014, 7:23 PM -

July 2014 will be remembered as a very warm month across most of western Canada and Atlantic Canada, but in between temperatures were a few degrees below seasonal from the southern Prairies to western Quebec.

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The map below shows temperatures during July relative to each location’s average temperature. The various shades of orange represent above seasonal temperatures while the various shades of blue and green highlight areas that were colder than seasonal during July.

July was especially warm in Newfoundland. St. John’s had its warmest July on record and through July 30, the average high temperature of 27.2ºC in Gander was nearly two degrees warmer than the average high of 25.4ºC in Toronto.

The coldest temperatures in Canada relative to average were found near Lake Superior. Wawa, Ontario had 22 days in which the high temperature did not reach 20ºC during July. Lake Superior water temperatures are still below average after a very late spring melt of the extensive ice cover that developed during the winter. Therefore southerly winds have often brought chilly and foggy conditions to this region rather than the warm weather that other regions would expect from south wind.

Looking ahead to the month of August, it looks like there will be little change to the overall weather pattern. The map below is a forecast generated by a model which is in general agreement with where we expect to find warmer than seasonal vs. colder than seasonal temperatures during the upcoming month.

This forecast is very similar to what we actually saw during July. Above-seasonal temperatures are expected to continue across Atlantic Canada and Western Canada with temperatures averaging slightly below seasonal in between.

The greatest uncertainty is across the Prairies where we expect greater fluctuation back and forth between periods of above and below seasonal temperatures which should come close to offsetting each other.

It is important to keep in mind, though, that all regions will see some variation back and forth between periods of warm vs. cooler weather. Even within a warm month there will be cooler days in B.C. and Atlantic Canada.

Likewise, summer is not over yet in Ontario. While temperatures are expected to average 1 to 3 degrees below seasonal during August, we do expect a few periods of warm weather with above average temperatures at times. Also, there are signs that we could see a warmer pattern in Ontario as we head towards September.

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