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The big day is almost here - how does your holiday weekend forecast shape up?

Soggy or sunny - get your Canada Day forecast details here


Caroline Floyd
Meteorologist

Saturday, July 1, 2017, 10:53 AM - Canadians have a weekend of celebrating Canada 150 ahead of them. And with tons of outdoor activities on the agenda, that has many wondering - what kind of a present does Mother Nature have in store for us?

The forecast team at The Weather Network has been keeping a close eye on developing weather for Canada Day, and as the day progresses, we're zeroing in on who's weekend weather will cooperate with their plans.

Read on as we break down the holiday weekend forecast, east to west across the country.


SUMMER IS HERE: With El Niño helping shape global patterns what will Canadians expect from summer? Find out with The Weather Network’s 2017 Summer Forecast | FORECAST & MAPS HERE


Atlantic Canada

Newfoundland saw showers clearing the Avalon through the morning hours, but most of Canada Day looks dry across the island, if a little on the chilly side, with highs in the mid-teens. Another system is knocking on the doorstep by the late evening hours, threatening showers into the southwest, however, they should hold off until after fireworks wrap up. Labrador will be similarly dry and cool, under the influence of high pressure.  

Across the Maritimes, showers will be hit and miss for many throughout the day. Cape Breton looks to see some of the rainiest weather across the region, with showers on and off throughout much of the day. Central and southern Nova Scotia should see some clearing through the afternoon and evening hours, as one system departs and another arrives. Specific timing of the showers will be tricky, but later afternoon through about 8 p.m. ADT looks like the best shot for some breaks around Halifax.

Prince Edward Island may luck out, as the high pressure over northern Quebec and Labrador pushes the system moving over the rest of the Maritimes away, keeping it south of the island, and the next system won't move in until Sunday morning. New Brunswick residents won't be as lucky when it comes to fireworks, as the rain moving in from Quebec looks to spread across most of the province through the evening hours. Afternoon breaks should make for some decent picnic weather, at least.


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Quebec

Quebec may be the province drawing the short straw when it comes to holiday weather, as a cold front will spend much of the day chugging across the region, bringing with it rain and thunderstorms that stand to disrupt any outdoor plans. While the entire day looks showery across the southern tier, forecast models show the heaviest rain - including potentially torrential downpours in thunderstorms - moving in through the later afternoon and evening hours, possibly putting a damper on any outdoor evening plans.

The potential for some storms to become severe is still there, as well, although it looks like a lack of daytime heating, thanks to the cloudy skies, will limit the instability of the atmosphere. Nonetheless, residents would be wise to keep an eye on developing weather, as well as any watches or warnings that may be issued.

Ontario

Southern Ontario will see mixed results when it comes to its Canada Day weather report card. A pair of waves sweeping through the region will mean a risk of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day - some potentially severe - ending earliest in the west, and lingering longest in the east. 

The National Capital Region is perhaps the trickiest forecast in the country, where they'll be threading the needle between bouts of thunderstorms for most of the day. The first round of showers and thunder arrives in the morning, and diminishes to give some breaks to Ottawa by late afternoon. The timing here will be critical when it comes to washing out Parliament Hill festivities, and unfortunately that timing will be one of the trickiest calls in a difficult forecast. How vigorous the secondary wave ends up being depends a fair bit on how much afternoon clearing the city sees after the first wave passes; more sun increases the risk for evening thunderstorms, more cloud may mean more stability in the atmosphere. Ottawa-area residents, and those visiting for the special occasion, will need to keep a weather eye throughout the day.

Areas further to the west, including Toronto, the GTA, the Niagara region, and London, are expected to see the initial round of showers and thunderstorms push through earlier in the day, with rain in the forecast from London through the GTA through the early afternoon, and clearing afterward. This could salvage the opportunity for evening fireworks, particularly west of the GTA, down toward Windsor and London. There is a risk for some later afternoon and evening thunderstorms to redevelop with the secondary wave, however, particularly between Oshawa and Cottage Country. Regions to the north and east of Toronto will bear watching into the evening, including the corridor between Kingston and Ottawa.

Northeastern Ontario may be clipped by early-day showers but once the initial front passes, the afternoon looks drier with just the risk of a lingering shower amid peaks of sun. A new system moving into the northwest will keep things unsettled, particularly through the afternoon when showers and thunderstorms develop between Kenora and Thunder Bay.

The Prairies

No organized systems will impact the region on Canada Day, but a few areas will see some unsettled weather.

Scattered showers will linger across extreme southern and eastern parts of Manitoba through the afternoon, as an upper level low shifts lazily eastward into Ontario. The majority of the province should see at worst a mix of sun and clouds, including Winnipeg and Brandon, with highs just slightly below seasonal, in the low 20s - possibly a welcome respite before the heat really starts to climb next week.

Saskatchewan could be the big winner when it comes to a sunny Canada Day, with high pressure from the north keeping the showers at bay. A shower or two is possible on the western periphery of the high, through central and western portions of the province, but any showers would be light, short-lived, and would likely have little impact on any outdoor activities. Temperatures will be rather cool to start the day but recover to near seasonal by afternoon.

High pressure will also bring a dry start to the day across Alberta. However, during the afternoon and evening, isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Rockies and Foothills, spreading east towards Calgary and Edmonton. Anyone planning to travel the QE2 will want to keep an eye on weather watches and warnings that may pop up, as some of these thunderstorms may reach severe limits. Temperatures across the province will be near or a few degrees above seasonal with the bulk of the province hitting afternoon highs around the low to mid-twenties. Southern portions of the province, including Lethbridge, will likely see highs creeping above the 30oC mark.

British Columbia

Beautiful British Columbia will be living up to its name for many. In one of the quietest provinces this weekend, weather-wise, B.C. residents will be able to enjoy some spectacular Canada Day weekend weather.

Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected for parts of the interior during the afternoon hours, especially closer to the Alberta border. High pressure over the US southwest will drive warm air northward through the interior valleys, raising high temperatures to near 30oC through the Okanagan and Kootenay valleys.

The Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island can look for mainly sunny conditions for the day, as high pressure steers precipitation further up the coast to the north. Temperatures across most of the region are expected to be hovering at near or slightly above seasonal - in the mid 20s - through the weekend.

The forecast centre here at The Weather Network will continue to monitor and update the forecast, as well as cover any significant weather as it develops, throughout the holiday weekend; stayed tuned to The Weather Network on TV, and to theweathernetwork.com for the latest as we follow this story.

-- With files from Brad Rousseau and Doug Gillham

Watch below: Canada 150: A message from The Weather Network CEO

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