Earl zeroes in on Mexico, Belize; Hurricane Warning issued

Wednesday, August 3, 2016, 9:08 AM - After a long journey across the Caribbean Invest 97L has finally evolved into the fifth named storm of this 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. For the past two days, meteorologists have been debating about the characteristics of this tropical wave which on occasions was very close to having all the ingredients of a tropical storm.

Although wind shear conditions along the path of the system in the East Atlantic have been favorable for convection to be present, a defined surface circulation had not developed until Tuesday, a must ingredient for storms of this type in order to be considered tropical depressions or tropical storms.

Earl's expected path and development

Tropical Storm Earl will continue to track to the west pretty much along the same path it has followed as Invest 97L. High pressure has been strengthening to the north of its expected track, making it difficult for Earl to curve to the north or northwest as many storms normally do when they reach the west Atlantic. The storm will still have another 12 hours to move over warm Caribbean waters (28^oC) before clipping the northern coast of Honduras and impacting the coast of Belize and the southern half of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, in the Yucatan Peninsula.

In Wednesday morning's computer runs, the National Hurricane Center forecast has upgraded the strength of Earl into a category 1 hurricane before landfall sometime late this Wednesday. 

Current SST anomalies are 1 to 1.5^oC above normal in the western Caribbean which means the storm should have a significant amount of ocean-generated energy available to continue developing. 

Wind shear conditions in the general region of Earl's movement also appear to be favorable according to latest model runs, although it increases significantly to the north. 

Although timing of landfall may vary, main impact from the storm should occur along the central coast of Belize late Wednesday with considerable weakening into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. 

As Earl moves across the Yucatan peninsula and dives into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Campeche it could get a new punch of energy to reach the coast of the state of Veracruz or Tabasco, again as a Tropical Storm sometime Friday morning.

Heavy showers (25 to 40 cm) and gusty winds are expected from the northern coast of Honduras across all of Belize, northeast Guatemala and and the southern portion of Quintana Roo in Mexico. Coastal flooding, mudslides and beach erosion is possible in these areas.

Earl has no threat at this time for the US although some moisture may be pumped up to the Gulf coast with an increase in shower activity along portions of Texas and an increase in rip current along the Gulf of Mexico coast.

New tropical waves have been pushing into the Atlantic of the coast of Africa in the vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands which could show further development as the week progresses. We will keep an eye on those during the next few days as we approach the most active weeks of the season

Check back for continued updates on this storm system.

Source: NHC