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November has a well-earned reputation for changeable weather as we make the transition from fall to winter. Next week will be a prime example of that.

Split personality ahead for November weather, here's why


Dr. Doug Gillham
Meteorologist, PhD

Thursday, November 12, 2015, 4:13 PM - November has a well-earned reputation for changeable weather as we make the transition from fall to winter. It's not unusual to look across Canada and see regions with mild weather that is considered to be more typical of September or October, while winter weather impacts other regions at the same time. Next week will be a prime example of that contrast.


As we look at the week as a whole, well above seasonal temperatures will be centred on the Great Lakes region with more wintry weather in the west.

The next few maps shows how the pattern will evolve through the week. The map below shows a model forecast for temperatures relative to local averages for next Monday.



The various shades of orange, red and grey, highlight the regions with above seasonal temperatures. For example, Winnipeg will have one more day of double digit high temperatures, in contrast to their average high of -1 C.

By the middle of next week, the warmest temperatures relative to average will be centred on the Great Lakes. High temperatures in southern Ontario could reach the mid-teens. The mild temperatures will be especially notable during the nights as the considerable cloud cover and gusty southerly winds will prevent the temperatures from dropping off very much at night.



Meanwhile, B.C. and Alberta have near-to-below seasonal temperatures and impressive snow totals are likely in the mountains.

For the end of the week, the warmest weather will continue to shift to the east and a blast of arctic air will bring the coldest weather of the season thus far to parts of western Canada.



The map below shows high temperature forecast for next Thursday.



The volatility of November weather can also been seen by looking back at our weather during the same week last year. The map below shows the temperature pattern during the third week of November last year, with the various shades of blue and purple showing that most of southern Canada was well below seasonal. That week featured widespread snow, record cold and intense bands of heavy lake effect snow, including the infamous band that buried parts of Buffalo with well over a metre of snow.



Even in southern Ontario, high temperatures stayed below freezing for most of the week and the ground remained covered with snow. Travel was difficult across the region, but many ski areas were able to open early.



The map below shows a sample of record low temperatures that were set on Tuesday, November 18, 2014.



This year temperatures on the same date will likely be at about 15 degrees warmer, but this is a reminder of the volatile weather that November can bring.

So, regardless of where you are and if you are happy or disappointed by what next week will bring, keep in mind that this is November in Canada, so the weather will likely change again soon.

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