Above-average Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end
Meteorologist, PhD
Wednesday, November 30, 2016, 7:07 PM - After above-average activity, the Atlantic Hurricane Season has come to an end.
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The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30, with this season proving to be one of the most active we've seen in some years.
The 2016 season is the first above normal season since 2012, with five named storm landfalls in the U.S. alone. Unfortunately, the season has also been the deadliest since 2005 mainly from the impact of powerful Hurricane Matthew back in early October.
According to National Hurricane Center forecaster Gerry Bell, the increase in activity this 2016 season has a lot to do with the presence of large areas of exceptionally weak wind shear that resulted from a persistent ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea and the western Atlantic Ocean. These atmospheric conditions together with warmer than usual sea surface temperatures in the region also helped fuel potent storms like Matthew which practically exploded in a matter of hours.
Expected above normal Atlantic hurricane season
In early Spring, before the official start of Atlantic on June 1, forecasts were already pointing towards an above average period. The National Hurricane Center anticipated 12 to 17 named storms, with five to eight of those becoming hurricanes and two to four of them intensifying into a major hurricane, that is Category 3 or above. The final balance: 15 named storms, of which seven became hurricanes (Alex, Earl, Gaston, Hermine, Matthew, Nicole and Otto) and three major hurricanes (Gaston, Matthew and Nicole).
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The season had an early start with Hurricane Alex forming in the east Atlantic back on Jan. 12. For the U.S. alone, 2016 has been a fairly active season because the number of storms impacting the Atlantic coastline -- five total -- is the highest since 2008 when six made landfall.
- Tropical storm Bonnie (June) and hurricane Matthew (October) impacted the South Carolina Coast
- Tropical Storms Colin (June) and Julia (September) together with hurricane Hermine (September) made landfall in northwest Florida, the first hurricane to touch Florida coastline since Wilma back in 2005.
Outside of the U.S., hurricane activity has also been significant, with four named storms impacting other Atlantic countries.
- Mexico: Tropical Storm Danielle (June)
- Belize: Hurricane Earl (August)
- Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamas: Matthew (September)
- Nicaragua: Otto (November)
There is no doubt that Matthew is the star of this 2016 season, as it was the strongest and longest lived. It was also the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since Felix in 2007.
Matthew intensified very quickly into a major hurricane on Sept. 30 and maintained the strength for eight full days until Oct. 7, while sailing the Caribbean with major impact in areas of Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamas.
Once it passed through the Bahamas, it tracked into Florida and the Carolinas, causing extensive damage and accounting for more than 30 deaths across the Southeast U.S.
We recently saw Hurricane Otto developing along the western Caribbean, a late comer that impacted southeast Nicaragua just last week. But despite the season drawing to a close, this storm proved that there is always a chance for Tropical Depression formation. True, it is less likely now that upper level winds become stronger in the Tropical Atlantic atmosphere and that Sea Surface Temperatures cool, but in some areas of the region we are still observing warmer than usual ocean waters and with the right atmospheric conditions the chance is there.
