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Will the temperature roller coaster continue into December?

By Dr. Doug Gillham
Meteorologist, PhD
Tuesday, November 19, 2013, 11:23 AM

The past few weeks have brought a temperature roller coaster to much the country with rapid fluctuations between warmer vs. colder than seasonal temperatures. However, dramatic fluctuations in the weather are typical of autumn in Canada as we transition from summer to winter. In fact, during September and October, the unusual feature of this fall had been the weather’s tendency to lock into a warmer or colder than seasonal pattern for two to three weeks at a time.

With less than two weeks to go until the start of December and the start of meteorological winter, can we expect the temperature roller coaster to continue, or will we return to a more consistent temperature pattern?

WINTER 2013/2014: The Weather Network releases the 2013/14 Winter Outlook on Monday, November 25 at 9 pm ET. Be sure to check back for details on what to expect for the upcoming season.

The global weather pattern and the long range models are in strong agreement that overall much of the country east of the Rockies will be in a colder than seasonal pattern for the rest of the month.

The following image shows a model depiction of forecast temperatures relative to the local average temperatures through the rest of this week. The green, blue and purple colors highlight the exceptionally cold temperatures that are currently in place and that are forecast to continue into this weekend from the Yukon to Manitoba. Much of Ontario will also be a couple degrees colder than average while much of Quebec and Atlantic Canada are forecast to be warmer than seasonal.

As we head into next week, the cold air will expand east with below seasonal temperatures forecast from the Prairies to Newfoundland. Meanwhile, the west will see a significan recovery in temperatures with warmer than seasonal temperatures for Western British Columbia and the Yukon.

At this point it looks like that pattern will hold for the remainder of the month and even into early December with an early start to winter for the Prairies, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada while British Columbia sees a cooling trend back to more seasonal temperatures.

So, can we expect this pattern to persist for much of the winter? Our team of meteorologists are putting the finishing touches on our winter forecast which will be released on television during the evening of Monday November 25th and it will be available online on Tuesday November 26th. Stay tuned!

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