How this violent, deadly tornado hit a wintry landscape
The tornado will receive at least an EF-3 rating from experts surveying the damage
An ice-covered lake provided a shocking contrast to the violent and deadly tornado that tore through southwestern Michigan on Friday afternoon.
The twister, which touched down less than 200 km from the Canadian border, carved a significant swath of damage through the affected communities.
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Major damage reported
Meteorologists from the U.S. National Weather Service confirmed on Saturday that the tornado will receive at least an EF-3 rating, making this the earliest violent tornado on record in Michigan since 1950.
The tornado killed at least three people as it destroyed numerous homes and tossed vehicles significant distances. Photographs from the ongoing NWS survey showed several homes swept clean off their slabs, with experts estimating winds of 240 km/h or stronger.
How did such an intense tornado unfold in such an unexpected location? After all, the tornado grazed an ice-covered lake--not typically a prime environment for severe thunderstorms, let alone a storm of this magnitude.
A low-probability event played out
Forecasters with the U.S. Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather across southern Michigan on Friday, reflecting a low risk for isolated severe thunderstorms.
Even though the potential was relatively low, all the right ingredients came together for a severe thunderstorm to produce a destructive tornado.
A warm front approaching the region caused temperatures and moisture levels to spike, providing fuel to power any thunderstorms that developed in the region.
Strong wind shear in the lower levels of the atmosphere helped a lone thunderstorm in southern Michigan develop rotation. Boundaries like warm fronts can act like a focusing mechanism that enhances the rotation within a thunderstorm.
The tornado took advantage of this favourable environment and quickly intensified after touching down.
Tornado happened in a rare spot this early in the season
Michigan is no stranger to tornadoes. The state has averaged about 13 confirmed twisters per year over the past couple of decades.
Across the U.S., tornadoes quickly increase in frequency through the month of March as we head deeper into the spring season.
Climatology shows that tornadoes are most common around the Mississippi River east toward Georgia during early March.
Michigan typically experiences the bulk of its tornado threat between June and August.
Header image courtesy of NOAA/NWS.