Rafael is November’s first major Gulf hurricane in nearly 40 years

The hurricane continues along an odd path through the Gulf of Mexico

Rafael is a strange hurricane that achieved an unusual feat late Thursday night.

This late-season storm became the Gulf of Mexico’s first major hurricane during the month of November in nearly 40 years. It’s a testament to the basin’s exceptionally warm waters that continue to defy the changing seasons.

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Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba on Wednesday as a major Category 3 storm with maximum winds of 185 km/h. The hurricane lost some strength as it traversed the western tip of the island before emerging in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) released a special update around 1:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday that Hurricane Rafael had restrengthened into a major hurricane over the Gulf’s steamy waters.

November Gulf Major Hurricane

With this renewed burst of strength, Rafael became November’s first major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Hurricane Kate back in November 1985.

It’s unusual for major hurricanes to form outside of the southern Caribbean this late in the hurricane season, which ends on November 30.

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Rafael only managed to maintain major hurricane status for about 12 hours before weakening a touch during the day on Friday.

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Hurricane Rafael Model Trends

A large ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States forced Rafael to turn west as it entered the Gulf, following a very unusual path for storms in the region around this time of year.

Environmental conditions around Rafael over the next few days will slowly grow more hostile to the storm’s continued existence.

That large ridge of high pressure north of the hurricane will force the storm to slow to a crawl in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, increased wind shear and dry air will force the storm to lose organization and eventually fizzle out by the end of the weekend.

Hurricane Rafael is the seventeenth named storm of this Atlantic hurricane season. While forecasts that called for a hyperactive season failed to come to pass, this has been an above-average season that managed to produce two separate Category 5 hurricanes in Beryl and Milton.

Header satellite image courtesy of NOAA.

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