Manitoba flood forecast upgraded to major risk on the Red River
Manitobans are being warned there's now a major risk of flooding on the Red River this spring after a series of big snowstorms south of the border in the United States.
Those storms have left an above-normal snow pack in much of the U.S. portion of the Red River basin, the province's Hydrologic Forecast Centre said in a report released Wednesday.
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The flood risk largely depends on weather conditions from now until the spring melt.
Favourable conditions would create a moderate risk of flooding similar to what was seen in fall 2019, the forecast says.
Normal weather would create a major risk of significant flooding, with peaks similar to spring 2019.
Unfavourable weather would also create a major risk of significant flooding, with peaks similar to peak river levels in 2020.
However, community dikes and other flood protection works are higher than even the predicted peak levels in the worst scenario.
Provincial officials are holding a news conference at 11:45 a.m. Wednesday about the flood outlook.
The U.S. weather service on Thursday will be updating the flood outlook for Fargo and Grand Forks.
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The forecast is a significant change from the first flood outlook for the season that came out at the end of February, predicting moderate flows along the Red and Assiniboine rivers, and in the Interlake region along the Fisher and Icelandic rivers.
The flood risk remains low to moderate along those other waterways, including the Assiniboine, Souris, Roseau, Rat and Pembina rivers, in the latest outlook.
Water levels are expected to remain below flood protection levels in communities along those rivers.
There is also a low risk of flooding for most other Manitoba basins, including the Saskatchewan River, Whiteshell lakes area and northern Manitoba.
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Floodway to operate
The Red River Floodway is expected to be put into operation this spring to reduce water levels in Winnipeg.
Operation of the Portage Diversion is also anticipated to prevent ice jamming on the Assiniboine River east of Portage la Prairie and to control river levels in areas downstream of there, including Winnipeg.
With the exceptions of Dauphin Lake and Lake St. Martin, most Manitoba lakes, including Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba, are projected to remain within operating ranges after the spring run-off, the province said.
Ice-cutting work along the Red and Icelandic rivers to reduce ice jam-related flooding began in mid-February and has been completed.
This article was originally published by CBC News on March 22, 2023.