Keep your guard up as Atlantic hurricane season sets a new record
Despite remaining exceptionally quiet to start October, hurricane season is far from over
The Atlantic just made it through its first hurricane-free September in more than 30 years. Will we make it to the end of the year without any hurricanes at all?
While there are no immediate signs of development on the horizon, recent history holds an ominous roster of destructive late-season storms. Coastal residents should remain alert as hurricane season continues through Nov. 30.
DON’T MISS: Destructive Atlantic hurricanes can still happen during El Niño
First hurricane-free September in decades
This year is the first time since 1994 that the Atlantic basin made it through the month of September without any hurricanes, a remarkable occurrence given that the season peaks during the second week of the month.
In fact, we haven’t seen any hurricanes at all this season. This is by far the longest wait for the first hurricane since the satellite era began in 1966, breaking the old record by three weeks and counting.
An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. So far this year, we’ve seen 8 named storms, most of which remained weak and short-lived.
The Atlantic has produced an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of just 10.8 as of Oct. 1. A normal value for this point in the year is 95.5. ACE measures the intensity and longevity of a season’s storms; this historically low value reflects how much these 8 storms struggled.
A very strong El Niño in the eastern Pacific is the primary driver of this year’s quiet conditions in the Atlantic. The warmer-than-normal waters of an El Niño lead to disruptive wind shear blowing east over the neighbouring ocean basin.
Chances are slim over the next week
Could we go without any hurricanes this year? It’s possible. But history also tells us that it’s extremely unlikely.
Only two seasons--1914 and 1907--went without any recorded hurricanes in the Atlantic. It’s almost certain that some storms were missed in the era before satellites and Hurricane Hunter flights, so it’s possible that those years indeed produced hurricanes that simply went undetected.
No Atlantic season in modern history has gone without at least one hurricane.
Storms around this time of year tend to form closer to land in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and western Atlantic. Numerous destructive hurricanes have struck during the month of October, including Milton in 2024, Michael in 2018, Sandy in 2012, and Wilma in 2005.
The latest outlook from the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows no signs of development across the Atlantic over the next seven days.
However, some models are hinting at potential development toward the end of next week in the southern Gulf of Mexico, where sea surface temperatures are running much warmer than normal.