Ontario unlocks extended autumn through the season ahead
Above-seasonal temperatures expected through fall as a whole, but classic fall weather won’t be far behind
El Niño will cast a long shadow across Ontario’s fall this year.
The province, along with much of Canada, will experience above-seasonal temperatures in the coming months.
But this season won’t be all bad news for folks who love extended summer and those looking forward to classic autumn days.
Here’s what you can expect from the next few months as Ontario takes the plunge from summer toward winter.
An unhurried season of change for Ontario
Although this fall as a whole may end up tilting above-seasonal for most of Ontario, we may actually run surprisingly close to seasonal for a large chunk of mid-September through mid-October.
A larger signal for warmer conditions emerges by late fall, which will create concern for early ski-area snowmaking.
We expect below-normal precipitation for much of the province as we’ll see fewer classic fall storms than normal. Fewer doesn’t mean zero, of course, and it only takes one hefty storm to define the season.
Warmer conditions overall doesn’t mean we’ll go entirely without classic doses of chilly air. But watch for a fall fake-out; an early season chill doesn’t spell the beginning of winter just yet.
Frequently asked questions
Q: Does a warmer fall mean we’ll coast through and winter weather won’t arrive until December?
A: Hard no. Snow, hard freezes, and Arctic air are normal parts of the transition through fall. Our forecast is made to identify the dominant pattern, and cold spells are more likely to be interrupted by mild weather rather than becoming the permanent pattern.
Q: Will ski season be delayed?
A: We’re carefully watching central and eastern Canada, where there’s a real risk of delays, while western Canada looks more nuanced and will be elevation-dependent. Previous strong El Niños have even delivered above-average snowfall amounts to B.C.’s mountains.
Q: The fall forecast sounds kind of boring. Are we destined for a storm-free season?
A: No. Even if precipitation finishes below normal, the season can still produce a handful of memorable, major storms.
Q: Could Canada face a historic fall storm?
A: Yes. Fewer storms doesn’t mean weaker storms, and one major event can define how an entire season is remembered.
Q: Does El Niño mean a mild winter?
A: Keep an eye out for our Winter Sneak Peek release in the coming weeks. The winter forecast will depend on how El Niño evolves and several other atmospheric factors.
Q: Will we get an early snowstorm?
A: It depends where you reside. Victoria, B.C.: highly unlikely. Churchill, MB: count on it. All it takes is a sharp pattern disruption that would temporarily overwhelm the dominant pattern.
The most important question isn’t whether winter weather appears, but whether it sticks around.
Winter weather will knock at times. This year, don’t expect it to move in right away.
WATCH | Canada's 2026 Fall Forecast: El Niño could keep the cold at bay
This article was written with the guidance and expert forecasting of Dr. Doug Gillham, a senior meteorologist specializing in long-range forecasting at The Weather Network.